I’m back…after taking a couple of weeks off to enjoy a rare win, I return with a pick from the Week 9 card.
NFL Pick Week 9: Bengals vs. Jaguars
This week I’m looking at an ugly underdog to carry the weight for us. Am I excited about asking the Cincinnati Bengals to cover this number…not exactly. But I think they offer up some real value in this matchup.
Currently, I’m seeing +5.5 and +6 showing up at most books. The line opened at Jags -3.5 and has steadily crept up throughout the week, crossing over 4 and 4.5. 5 and 5.5 are dead numbers, but 6 is a key one. So if your out isn’t there yet, wait on it and play this at +6.
That part above about a lack of enthusiasm backing the Bengals in this spot – that’s the feeling one should have laying over four points with the Jaguars. Sure Jacksonville rolled up on the Colts before the bye (27-0), while the Bengals barely scraped by that same Indy squad (24-23) last Sunday (this recency bias definitely contributing to the line movement), but this is a team with weaknesses Cincy can exploit.
Starting with a dismal O-line, the Cincinnati pass rush should be in the Jags’ backfield all game. When you have a below-average QB back there, that type of disruption is hard to overcome, even with a running game going. Look for Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins to be around Blake Bortles early and often. This will be a key.
NFL Pick: I’ll take the Bengals at +6
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