by Greg Dempson
My first indoctrination to the number 7 was via that popular dice game, “craps” and the number 11 pertained to our town curfew, not the 7 – 11 convenience store. As for the more or less, (noted in parenthesis,) that pertains to more than 3 points but less than 7 points in this week one system that I’m sharing with you.
I’m sure that many of you are in NFL survivor pools this season and some have already “used” the Patriots in week one. I’m certain that many of you have also selected Green Bay, or Seattle and perhaps Dallas this week as well. In the majority of survivor pools all your single game selection has to do is, win straight up.
As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend.”
Let’s think back to all the forum chatter this past week about Virginia Tech getting +14 at home vs. Ohio State last Monday night. Nationwide those buses were very full of Hokies backers. To be sure, the majority thought that Virginia Tech wouldn’t win straight up, but they most certainly would stay within the number. If you took the Hokies ATS, well, you know how that worked out.
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This week the bus is very full of Rams, Bills, Dolphins gamblers and more than 50% of the various buses throughout the nation are full with Cowboys and Packers backers. Chicago hasn’t defeated Green Bay since November 4, 2013, (27–20,) and that was when Aaron Rodgers had to leave the game due to injury. Jay Cutler was also on the sidelines in that contest so it was Josh McCown that guided the Bears to victory. Cutler is 1–9 lifetime vs. Green Bay with the lone victory at home in week 3 of the 2010 season, (20–17,) on a Monday night.
Rodgers has their number but laying 6 or 6.5 points on the road vs. a division foe isn’t that smart but, we are just taking straight up in the survivor pool. If you’re in the pool just to make a few dollars or you are a more serious player, here is some food for thought
Okay so let me set up this system for you – NFL Picks this week 1.
#1. We are focusing on teams that are underdogs of +3.5 to +6.5 points in week 1 only. So, more than 3 but less than 7.
#2. We are looking for teams that had 7 or less wins during the regular season last year and playing a week 1 opponent that had 11 or more regular seasons wins last season.
#3. The games that are live in this week 1 system would be; Seattle at St. Louis, Green Bay at Chicago and the New York Giants at Dallas and we are focusing on playing on the dogs here.
#4. So, play on any underdog of 3.5 up to 6.5 points in week 1, that won 7 or less games straight up when facing a foe that won 11 or more games the previous season.
#5. The play on teams in this system would be the Rams, Bears and Giants.
Since 1996, by backing our play on teams in this week 1 system, (the Rams, Bears and Giants,) our success rate is 16–0 = 100% ATS. A 16 game sampling dating 19 years for a week one system is acceptable.
If you don’t keep track of all the line moves, your records might have a 3 vs. a 3.5 or a 7 vs. 6.5 number, but based on my record keeping, which includes the NFL lines since 1960, I’m confident this 16 game sampling in this system is accurate. (Oddly enough the Green Bay/Chicago line in 2006 had numbers of +3 and +3.5.
Ultimately it is the line that you bet into that’s important, not some number you got from a magazine at your favorite newsstand, or an on-line odds web site.
It’s a long season and maybe Seattle, Green Bay or Dallas will blow out the three underdogs that are live in this system. Sometimes it’s what you don’t wager on that will make a difference in your bottom line.
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