By Greg Dempson
Arizona Cardinals –2.5 @ Detroit Lions, O/U at 44.5, (4:05 ET)
With last week’s win, my EE record improves to 6–1 ATS with my systems and selections, onto this week’s pick.
Last week the Cardinals dropped their first game of the year to the Rams as 7 point home chalk. They had difficulties in the Red Zone and kicked 5 field goals while scoring one touchdown is a 24–22 loss. The Cardinals are still averaging 39.0 points in the last three weeks and overall they’re averaging 37.0 PPG this season, trailing only New England at 39.6 PPG. Even after last week’s loss, the Cardinals are one of six teams with a 100% Red Zone scoring efficiency and their 70.6% touchdown rate ranks them sixth. Arizona is ranked fourth in total offense averaging 405.0 YPG and is matched up vs. a Lions team that is #25 in total defense allowing an average of 383 YPG.
Even though Arizona is on the road, this line seems suspiciously low at –2.5 considering we have a 3–1 team facing an 0–4 opponent and when considering the futility of Detroit’s offense a total of 44.5 appears to be a little on the high side. Detroit has score a combined 38 points in their last three games and the Lions’ 75.0% Red Zone scoring efficiency ranks 27th, and its eight Red Zone drives are tied with Chicago for the NFL’s fewest, hence, the Lions rank in the bottom four in league scoring, averaging16.5 PPG, as well as total offense, averaging 292.8 YPG.
View From the 50 Yard Line
– The Lions are 16–4 to the over in home games following a road cover where the team lost as an underdog.
– Carson Palmer is 20–9 to the over as a favorite.
– Detroit is 12–3 to the over after gaining less than 100 yards rushing in four consecutive games.
– Arizona is 44–27 to the over vs. poor offensive teams who are scoring 17 or less points per game.
– Coach Arians is 12–04 to the over when his team is favored.
– These two teams are 5–1 to the over in their last 6 games played in Detroit.
– After being outrushed by their opponents by an average of 60 or more yards per game, (Lions,) and after gaining less than 100 rushing yards in two straight games, play the over. This system is 63–30 = 68% to the over the past decade.
– Following a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, play road teams winning between 60-75% or more of their games on the season to sail over the total. This system is 27–06 = 82% to the over the last 10 seasons.
My EveryEdge NFL Game of the Week is for the Cardinals and Lions to sail over 44.5 points.
For additional winning systems and selections visit www.gregdempson.com