NFL Week 12 : Chiefs at Broncos Free Pick

week 12 nfl picks

Broncos QB Trevor Siemian was battling a shoulder injury but is expected to start

By Pick Sixty Sports

The Denver Broncos played to a wild finish in Week 10 and Sunday they return from their bye to battle the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.


Odds: Broncos -3 and O/U 39.5

Kansas City were upset by the Bucs in Week 11 to drop their record to 7-3 SU. The Broncos are also 7-3 SU on the season but the Chiefs hold an edge thanks to their 2-0 record vs. the division. Denver is 1-2 SU against the West, losing to the Raiders and splitting a pair with San Diego.

When two rivals meet and each has a winning record on the season, the first temptation for a lot of bettors is to take the points. Divisional games are renowned for hard hitting affairs that often come down to the wire so it’s natural to want to have that extra edge (Ie. +3 points) tucked into your back pocket as the clock ticks down.

Looking beyond the spread, though, we’ve uncovered another indicator that serves as a much more accurate measure of which team will come out on top of these crucial affairs. The key element is ‘desire’ and the statistic is simply ‘divisional wins’ on the season coming into this match. Who wants it more?

Favorites with fewer divisional wins than their opponent have come out on top 81 of 113 times straight-up (72%) with an ATS success rate of 63% the past 25 years. Since league realignment in 2002, the percentages get even stronger. Divisional faves looking to gain ground on their rivals have a record of 39-9 SU and 34-13-1 ATS (72%) since the league went to its current format, including a current run of 13-straight wins (12-0-1 ATS) since 2011.

Week 17 games are excluded from this system because of the uncertainty over who will play and for how long. Playoff games are also left out as the ‘loser goes home’ element will outweigh any teams reluctance to dig deep over their rank in the standings. Home and road faves are each hitting better than 70-percent against the spread.


This game was flexed into the Sunday night spot over the Pats and Jets as the battle for one-up-manship between Brady and Goodell wages on. Denver is hoping to get CB Aqib Talib back in the lineup and Derek Wolfe, who injured his elbow in Oakland, could also return. The Chiefs are keeping a close eye on RB Charcandrick West and WR Jeremy Maclin but it doesn’t look good for either. The chalk is available here at -3 with a price and I paid -125 for it.

Chiefs at Broncos Free Pick: Broncos to cover

Follow @PickSixtySports for more NFL trends, systems and free picks!