by Greg Dempson
The puck drops at 7:00 ET at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa as the Senators return home off a two game sweep in Boston with both games being won by one goal, (4-3) and (1-0.) So, when off back-to-back high scoring contests with Boston on the ropes and facing elimination, this should be an easy UNDER, right? “Not so fast my friends,” as football analyst Lee Corso would say! (I wonder if Lee knows anything about hockey?)
When the Senators are up three games to one in the playoffs they are a perfect 8-0 while the Bruins have never won a series when trailing 3-1. The Senators have owned the Bruins as a host going 13-04 in their last 17 meetings as well as 6-1 in their last seven. The line is very fair if you like the host at +100. I was tempted to back Ottawa tonight and the under but….read on!
- The past two seasons Boston is 41-27 to the over when on the road and playing a team with a winning record.
- Ottawa’s average combined score in division games this season is 5.4 goals per game.
- In the second half of the season, this season, the Bruins are 12-04 to the over when on the road and playing against teams that allow opponents four or less power plays per game.
- Boston is 12-04-01 to the over after scoring less than two goals in their last game.
Triple Super OVER Systems
- In the second half of the season, play road teams who are playing with triple revenge to sail over the total when the O/U is 5 goals or less and they have a straight up winning percentage between 45%to 55%. This system is 34-11 = 76% to the over the past five seasons.
- Following a home loss against the same opponent, play road teams that are playing their fourth game in seven days to sail OVER the total when the O/U is 5 goals or less. This system is 30-19 to the over just this season as well as 181-107 = 63% to the over the past five seasons and +55.30-units.
- After a shutout home loss, and having a winning record on the season, play said team over the total, (system applies to the Bruins who lost 1-0,) when they’re playing another winning team.This system is 37-15 = 71% to the over the past three seasons with an average combined score of 5.9 goals in this system.
This season the Road team is 11-0 in this System
- Play on road teams at -100 to -150 on the money line after failing to win four or five of their last six games when facing a foe that has won three of their last four games. This system is 11-0 this season and also 159-87 = 65% since 1996 and +56.80-units. I did not wager on Boston in this system but I offer this up as “food for thought!”
Everyedge.com in Review
- My last selection on Washington/Toronto over 5.5 goals was a winner and I’m 1-3 with my Every Edge NHL Playoff selections for -2.50-units.