No Lift Off – Houston vs Portland Pick

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Houston, we have a problem in Portland

By Greg Dempson

Houston Rockets vs Portland Trailblazers

Tonight’s nationally televised ESPN contest features the Rockets at the Trailblazers with the tip set for 10:30 ET. The Rockets lost last night at Golden State, 123–110. Portland is one game below .500 but are on a hot streak as they’ve won 11 out of 14 since January 10th, averaging 105.6 PPG which is 4.9 PPG higher than their previous mark.

The Trailblazers have also played much better on defense during their current run as they’ve improved by holding opponents to 40.6% down from their season average of 44.8%. In their win vs. the Rockets this past Saturday they held Houston to 32.5% shooting and defeated them at the Toyota Center, (96–79,) then followed that up by defeating Memphis on the road for the first time in more than three years.

Pinnacle Sports: Houston +4.5 vs Portland -4.5 Total 214.5

As for Houston, they’ve lost five out of their last seven games, while allowing an average of 113.6 PPG in their last seven, and stand at 27–27 on the season. Here’s a interesting stat, since the beginning of the New Year Houston is 5–0 straight up when Dwight Howard’s not in the line-up and 6–9 when he is.

From Beyond the Arc

· Houston has been awful of defense when playing away from home, allowing an average of 120.8 points and 45.6 percent shooting from 3-point range in their last six contests.

· Portland is 14–04 ATS vs. teams that allow 103+ points per game this season.

· The Rockets are 10–20 ATS after allowing 105 or more points this season.

· The past two seasons the Trailblazers are 16–05 ATS after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points.

· Houston is 0–4 ATS in their last four vs. Portland.

· Portland is 18–06 ATS when off an upset win as a road underdog the last three seasons.

· The Rockets are 45–70 ATS and -32.0-units in road games revenging a loss to an opponent by 10 points or more.

· Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points when revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, when off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, (Houston lost to the Warriors last night.) This system is 108–64 = 63% ATS since 1996.

· From game 43 out, play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that allow an average of 98–102 PPG when playing against a horrible defensive team that allows 102 or more points per game, after a contest where both teams scored 105 points or more. This system is 51–24 = 68% ATS since 1996.

Houston vs Portland Pick

My Every Edge selection for this evening is on the Portland Trailblazers –4.5 points or lower.