By Greg Dempson
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
After starting the season at 1–5, the Kansas City Chiefs have won 9 consecutive games and can finish first in the division with a win vs. the Raiders and a loss by Denver to the Chargers. In has been an amazing turnaround for the Chiefs as they’re only the second team to start the season at 1–5 and make the post season since the NFL merged with the AFL back 1970. The other team to accomplish that feat was Cincinnati Bengals.
As for the (7–8) Raiders, they will not make the post season but can finish at .500 with a win at Kansas City. This will also be the final game for Charles Woodson, so I anticipate a complete effort, trying to close out the season with a straight up win.
Last week in their non cover win vs. the Browns the Chiefs were held without a sack. Once again Justin Houston wasn’t in the line-up, he hasn’t played in their last four contests because of a hyper extended knee but did practice on Friday, (limited.) Pro Bowl linebacker Tamba Hali missed the Browns game with a broken finger. These two have combined for 14 of the teams 41 sacks this season.
In their previous meeting this season Oakland lost by 2 touchdowns, (34–20.) The final score doesn’t always tell the complete story and many of Oakland’s yards were not in garbage time. Statistically Oakland out yarded the Chiefs 361–232 as well as having 27 first downs vs. 15 for the Chiefs and a time of possession advantage of 34:28 vs. 25:32 minutes. Kansas City has been out yarded in four of their last five contests and since game nine out, the disparity between these two teams is close as the Chiefs are –02 yards per game vs. –07 YPG for the Raiders.
View From the 50 Yard Line
· The Raiders are 5–2 ATS on the road this season and outscoring their opponents 24.4 vs. 22.9 PPG.
· The Chiefs are only 3–4 ATS at home including 0–2 vs. division foes, outscoring all opponents by slightly more than 4 PPG.
· Derek Carr is 8–4 ATS as a road underdog.
· Andy Reid is 1–16 as a host vs. teams with a straight up winning percentage of .465 or higher.
· When coaching the Jaguars/Raiders Jack Del Rio is 11–02 ATS as a division dog and playing with revenge as well as 9–0 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent that scored 28 or more points in all games he has coached.
· Oakland is 29–14 ATS as a road underdog of +3.5 to +7 points.
· Kansas City is 27–47 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game.
· Finally, when we play against home favorites that average 4.5 or more yards per rush when they’re playing against a team with an average rushing defense, allowing 3.5 to 4.5 YPR, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in their last game, we are 46–15 = 75% ATS dating back to 1983. This system is much stronger of late when backing the underdog at 8–0 ATS the past five seasons as well as 19–03 = 86% ATS the past decade. The average line in this system was 6.7 vs. an average margin of victory of 4.4 points per game. I expect a close one and will gladly take the points.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Pick
My Every Edge Game of the Week is on the Oakland Raiders +7 or more points.
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