By Greg Dempson
Edwin Jackson returns to the bay area to face a team he previously pitched for and had great success with, the Tampa Bay Rays. In 2008, when the Rays played the Phillies in the World Series, Jackson posted 14 wins. This 7:10 ET start is their second of a three game Inter-League series at Tropicana Field.
Jackson has five starts in a Padres uniform and he’s fared well of late going 3–1 in his last four starts with an ERA of 1.24. When facing his former team he is 3–2 in five starts posting an ERA of 2.54, WHIP 1.105. In two road starts through 13 innings, Jackson’s allowed 2 earned runs on 8 hits, walking 6 and striking out 8 with an ERA of 1.38, WHIP of 1.077.
Blake Snell is on the mound for the Rays tonight and in 11 starts this season Snell/Team is 3–8 which is deceptive as his overall ERA is 3.18, WHIP 1.518. When pitching at home he/team is 2–4 in 6 starts averaging 5.1 innings per start with an ERA of 3.82, WHIP of 1.664 on 33 hits, (2 homers,) in 30.7 innings while walking 18 vs. 34 strikeouts. In his last three starts, (12.3 combined innings,) his ERA is 3.65 but his WHIP is 1.865 as he’s walked 9 batters vs. 18 strikeouts while allowing 14 hits including 2 home runs.
Last night’s victory with the underdog Pirates, (+128,) improved my Every Edge MLB record to 31–16–01. I don’t play favorites of more than –125 because in the long run, you won’t make any money.
Around the Diamonds
· The Padres are 18 games below .500 this season but are much better vs. lefties at 16–15 averaging 5.2 RPG.
· The Rays are is 11–19 and -14.40-units against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
· Jackson is 12–06 and +13.60-units against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 in his career.
· Tampa Bay is 1–5 in their last six at home vs. Inter–League opponents.
· The Padres average 5.9 RPG in Inter–League games this season vs. 4.6 for the Rays.
· San Diego is +21.10-units against the money line after 2 straight losses by 4 or more runs which sets up nicely for these two systems.
All Systems Go
· After back-to-back losses by 4 or more runs, play on any National League team with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season. Since 1997 this system is 119–91 and +54.30-units.
· After back-to-back losses by 4 or more runs, play on National League teams at +100 or more with an OBP of .300 or worse. This system is 84 – 70 and +47.50-units since 1997.
Padres vs Rays Pick
My Every Edge selection for this evening is on the San Diego Padres at +165.
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