By Greg Dempson
On October 2 at Foxborough the Bills shutout the Patriots 16–0. I’m sure everyone reading this is well aware of that fact as well as noting New England played that game without Brady and “Gronk” plus they started their third string quarterback, as Jacoby Brissett played with an injured thumb. So, since Brady has returned to the line-up he has thrown for 8 touchdown passes with zero interceptions. New England has also won their last three games by double-digits and with Brady’s return the Patriots have averaged 31.7 points per game plus he’s completed 75% of his passes for 1,004 yards.
Rex Ryan has certainly had New England’s number of late going 5–1–1 ATS in their last seven but Belichick is tremendous when playing with same season revenge and Buffalo has not won straight up twice in the same season vs. the Patriots since 1999.
This time around it will be the Bills who will be missing key starters as LeSean McCoy, who rushed for 470 yards and five touchdowns during the four game winning streak, managed only 11 yards vs. the Dolphins last week and did not finish the game. His hamstring that kept him out of practice Thursday will keep him off the field on Sunday. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who threw for 246 yards and a touchdown in the earlier meeting, could be without Marquise Goodwin and Robert Woods plus Sammy Watkins is on injured reserve.
Buffalo is 4–3 on the season but a closer look at three of their four victories reveals that Buffalo has defeated the Rams, 49ers and the Patriots without Brady and Gronkowski.
- Last week’s selection on the Bills was a loser, my NFL season record is 7–3 ATS in the pre and regular season.
- New England is 8–1 ATS when playing with revenge vs. a foe that’s off a straight up favorite loss.
- Brady is 31–21 ATS when a favorite of –2 to –9 points.
- Tyrod Taylor is 04–10 ATS as an underdog.
- Belichick is 23–06 ATS when revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a favorite.
- Quarterback Taylor is also 2–7 ATS when getting +2 to +9 points.
- Belichick is 15–02 ATS when revenging a loss when team scored less than 14 points and a perfect 8–0 ATS when they scored less than 10 points.
- The Patriots have won 30 out of the last 33 meetings vs. the Bills and 21 of their last 27 wins have been by 7 or more points.
Pre Bye Week System
- Play on division road favorites with a bye week on deck. This system is on a 13–03 = 81% ATS.
Patriots at Bills Pick
When I made my wager on this game my number was –5.5, I only see one book as of this report that still has a line at –5.5. My Every Edge selection is on the New England Patriots at –6 or less.
For additional winnings systems, selections, angles and Tweets visit www.gregdempson.com.