Packers wideout Randall Cobb had five catches for 116 yards against the Giants, 42 of which came on a Hail Mary touchdown pass to end the first-half
The Green Bay Packers are in Dallas this Sunday, looking to settle a score from a home loss to these Cowboys earlier in the season. Dallas has its own motivation, taking down the mighty Packers to avenge a controversial playoff loss suffered three years ago at Lambeau Field.
GREEN BAY AT DALLAS
Odds: Cowboys -4.5 and O/U 52
This line opened at -4 with the anticipation that Packers leading WR Jordy Nelson (ribs) would be out. It hopped up early in the week but the action on the total has been much more lopsided on this game. If betting trends continue, the Over/Under could go as high as 54 by kickoff. No one seems to have a lot of confidence in either one of these defenses so the stage is set for a showdown between one of the game’s greatest touchdown passers and the new kid on the block, Dak Prescott.
Dallas owes a great deal of its success during Prescott’s rookie season to RB Ezekiel Elliot, drafted fourth overall. Slamming behind the powerful Cowboys’ offensive line, Elliot finished with 1,631 rushing yards which is third all-time for a rookie. He also had 15 rushing TDs and the Packers had a firsthand look at his capabilities in Week 6, when Elliot rushed 28 times for 157 yards, or 5.61 yards per carry.
The Packers run D ranked 14th overall and allowed 4.0 RYPC on the year. Their best defense against the run was a great offense. During Green Bay’s current seven game winning streak they have held opponents to just 96 yards per contest and Aaron Rodgers’ professional record in games when his D allows less than 100 rush yards is 54-16 SU, 47-22-1 ATS (68%).
Rodgers was a road dog in 13 of those games, going 10-3 ATS including a 4-0 ATS playoff record. The Packers offense outscored opponents 30-25 in those 13 road games and they averaged 31 points in the four playoff dates.
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Third-year WR Davante Adams was second to Nelson in virtually every receiving category this season, including TDs (12). His first two years, Adams found the endzone four times on 88 touches but in 2016, he started living up to the expectations Mike McCarthy had when they drafted Adams in the second round of the 2014 draft.
TE Jared Cook is another new face that’s played a big role in Green Bay’s recent success, averaging 12.6 yards per reception and gaining more trust from his QB as the season progresses. The past four weeks, Cook has 18 receptions and the Cowboys’ biggest weakness in then passing game is against tight ends, where Football Outsiders ranks them 30th overall.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS: PACKERS and da`BOYS
According to my custom matchup rankings, the Packers at +4.5 are a ‘High’ rated value play and teams in this profile are hitting 60-percent ATS on the season (43-29-1). Green Bay has shortcomings in their secondary and never was it more apparent than in the Week 11 loss to Washington. But since then they have shown minor improvements in their pass rush, yards per play, third down percentage and red zone. The level of competition was never as high as it is this weekend but the Packers offense is scoring 31.9 points per game during this streak and the team has a +16 turnover margin. Considering Rodgers’ playoff experience and his 7-2 ATS record away from Lambeau, I feel like the extra points are the way to go in this game.