Reds vs Angels Pick – Umping Over

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baseball umpire

By Greg Dempson

Bovada Odds: Cincinnati Reds +125 vs Los Angeles Angels -145 Total 9  

The Reds send Time Adelman to the mound in this10:05 ET start. In limited action this season Adelman is 4–2 to the over in six games with an ERA of 3.68, WHIP 1.330. When on the road his ERA is 4.09, WHIP of 1.364. In his most recent three starts his ERA is 4.05 while lasting only 13.3 innings. The Reds have a terrible bullpen, their road ERA is 5.05, WHIP 1.568.

The Angels start Jered Weaver, he has the slowest MPG fastball in the majors and isn’t the Weaver of old as attested by his home ERA of 5.45, WHIP of 1.507. In his last three starts Weaver’s ERA is 6.37, WHIP of 1.914. He’s 7–5 to the over in 12 home starts.

In Review

  • My last selection on the Astros at –107 on the money line was a loser and my MLB record at Every Edge is 33–18–01.

Come On Over

  • Cincinnati is 31–15 to the over and +15.30-units after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.
  • The Angels are 15–07 to the over in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
  • The Reds are 71–48 to the over and +20.70-units in all games this season.
  • Los Angeles is 30-17 to the over and +12.20-units vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.
  • Cincinnati is 61–43 to the over vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.
  • The Angels are 13–04 to the over in home games vs. teams who are outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season.

Inter–League Over Umpire

  • Tonight’s umpire Laz Diaz is an amazing over umpire in Inter–League games. The past two seasons he is 13–02 = 87% to the over in these IL Contests averaging 12.3 RPG.
  • The past five seasons Diaz is 16–05 = 76% to the over averaging 11.1 RPG.
  • Since 2008 he is 23–10 = 70% to the over in IL contests with teams averaging 10.6 RPG.

Reds vs Angels Pick

I have this game sailing over the total at 9.0 runs at –120.

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