With Kick-off in the big game upon us, we take a look at the Super Bowl Picks in the Eagles vs. Patriots matchup in Minnesota today.
I have a prop play below, plus my thoughts on the side.
I originally had the Eagles circled as a play, taking the points and feeling good about a cover, with a real shot at the win. But as the days passed and I kept digging in, that Philly love started to erode. To the point where I’m just not excited about backing the underdog now.
In the Conference Championships I liked Philly to get by the Vikings (although I certainly wasn’t expecting the dismantling that took place), and I mentioned my support for Foles had made me the focus of some derision amongst my friend group, who’d tagged me as somewhat of a “Foles” apologist.
No question I have been a supporter, but today, in this spot, this is a Philly team that could use Carson Wentz. They could also use Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks having big games. They could also have really used Gronk still being in the concussion protocol (and no, I don’t want to see anyone not getting healthy, especially when it comes to the head, but it would have been a blow to the Pats if he wasn’t able to go). But Gronk is back. In fact, New England is as healthy as ever.
And you have the “guaranteeing a win” comments from the Eagles’ side, the way the players appeared to be handling Super Bowl week (wearing the Go Pros, etc.), really getting into the hype and attention…juxtaposed with the Patriots approach. Big difference.
I don’t usually put much weight into the “they’ve been there before” stroryline, but in this, with the Pats, they come at this in a way that does have significance. If any player or coach from any other team said the words “this is just another game” you would absolutely call bullshit and be 100% correct.
With Brady and Belichick, you believe it. This is another game on the schedule for them.
That all said, I’m laying those points and taking New England, reluctantly as I would be happy to see Philadelphia win this one.
Super Bowl Pick: New England -4.5
As for the props, here’s a few I like (not that it matters, but I did go 4-1 last year on props, for whatever that’s worth)
Super Bowl Prop Pick
Alshon Jeffrey Over 3.5 receptions (-130)
The Eagles have a few targets to go to, making it difficult to slide extra attention to one receiver. And when they do, it’s often going to be TE Zach Ertz. Jeffrey has caught over four passes in each playoff game so far and Foles has shown confidence in getting the ball out to him.
Over 3.5 catches for Jeffrey
Enjoy the game and good luck!