Titans vs Lions Pick – Over Reaction Action!

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By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Tennessee Titans +6.5 vs Detroit Lions -6.5 Total 47.5

The Titans loss to the Vikings in week 1 was a bit misleading as Minnesota scored two defensive touchdowns due to quarterback Mariota having two critical turnovers, one resulted in a pick six and then a fumble exchange with DeMarco Murray was returned for a touchdown. The Vikings have a formidable defense which is clearly superior than the defense that Tennessee will face vs. the Lions in this 1:00 ET start at Ford Field.

Last week Detroit’s running game produced admirably, as Abdullah rushed for 63 yards and Theo Reddick combined for 108 yards on 19 carries. Tennessee has the ability to limit Detroit’s rushing attack as they held Minnesota’s RB Adrian Peterson to 31 yards on 19 carries. The Titans’ defense didn’t lose the game as they shutout the Vikings in the first half while allowing four field goals in the second half. (Legendary defensive guru Dick LeBeau is calling Tennessee’s defense.)

Detroit allowed 82 yards on the ground but the Colts didn’t need to grind it out via the ground game as they aired it out 47 times with Luck going 31 out of 47 for 368 yards. Tennessee has an improved offensive line and with Murray and Henry in the backfield, I would expect a pound and ground game by Tennessee to aid in keeping a good Detroit offense on the sidelines. Last season Detroit’s run defense slipped to #19th with the departure of Ndamukong Suh.

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • Last week the Packers gained a hard fought straight up but non-cover win at Jacksonville. Green Bay has Minnesota this week and Detroit next weekend, two division opponents on deck off an Inter-Conference game. Next week the Lions will play the Packers followed by the Bears with both contests being road games. Can you say look-a-head? Based on the past 20 occurrences, I would say yes to the look-a-head scenario, as the Lions are 5–15 ATS when favored in a game before facing the Packers.
  • The last time Tennessee faced Stafford and the Lions was on September 23 of the 2012 season, (44–41,) for the Titans. Tennessee is 5–1 straight up vs. Detroit while winning their last three straight up in the motor city and on a run of 8–2 straight up since 1975.
  • After gaining 7 or more yards per play Detroit is 09–21 ATS and -14.10-units in their next game.
  • Tennessee is on a covering streak of 45–26 ATS and +16.40-units in non-conference games.
  • The Lions are 27–48 ATS and -25.80-units as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

In Review

  • Last week’s Every Edge selection was a winner with the Vikings –2.5 at the Titans, (25–16,) I preceded that winner with a 3–0 ATS preseason record.

All Systems Go

  • The Lions allowed a lot of points last season, (400 for an average of 25 per game,) and that issue prevailed in week 1 at Indianapolis as they allowed the Colts to score 33 points. What we want to do in this contest is play against home favorites, (applies to playing against the Lions,) who fielded a defense that allowed an average of 24 or more points per game last season after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored last week. This system is 28–03 = 90% ATS since 1983 as well as 6–0 ATS the past three seasons, 9–1 ATS the past five seasons and 16–02 = 89% ATS the past decade. The average line favored the home team at –5 vs. a final average score of 23.6 to 21.0.
  • After scoring 30 or more points in their last game, (the Lions defeated the Colts, 39–35,) play against all home teams that allowed 24 or more points per game last season. This system is 24–04 = 86% ATS since 1983 as well as 3–0 ATS the past three seasons, 6–0 ATS the past five and 12–01 = 92% ATS the past decade. The average line in this system is –3 vs. an average score of 24.4 to 20.7 PPG.

Titans vs Lions Pick

My official Every Edge selection for week 2 is on the Tennessee Titans at +6.5 or +6.

For additional winning information, systems, angels and Tweets visit www.gregdempson.com.