It’s the most popular day of the year for betting the ponies and we’ve handicapped the field, tracked Kentucky odds through the week and narrowed down the selections with this year’s Kentucky Derby picks
Joel Rosario finished fourth in his first run at the Kentucky Derby in 2010. Riding from the 8-hole, he will look to break onto the board today atop Creative Cause
Strategy is an important part of betting the Kentucky Derby and if you’ve spent the week handicapping, you’ve probably already placed a bet or two with your online sportsbook or off track betting. Getting a few bets in early is a good way to lock up value because the odds on the top half of the field generally drop on race day, but you have to resist the urge to spread your bankroll to thin.
Between exactors, boxes and a trifecta, there are countless Kentucky Derby betting stories where by the time their horses barrelled down the stretch, people were not even sure who to cheer for anymore!
Bodemeister (+501), Union Rags (+513) and Gemologist (+763) are shaping up to be the three top picks among bettors today and if you were only going to make one high-probability bet on this race and forget about it, consider Bodemeister.
Bodemeister has great speed and that could be huge asset in this competitive field, but the key for jockey Mike Smith will be harnessing the power for a chance to break away late. Smith already has one Kentucky Derby win (2005, Giacomo) under his belt and this Bob Baffert trained horse has the tools.
Baffert also has plenty of Triple Crown experience and three Kentucky Derby wins (1997, 1998, 2002) to his resume. The complete package, don’t forget Bodemeister in your exactor box.
Pick: Take the No. 6 Bodemeister
TRACK CONDITIONS, WEATHER
The main track at Churchill Downs was sloppy early this morning and horse racing picks for a lot of expert handicappers will hinge on how the Kentucky Derby weather report holds up throughout the day. For now, they are calling for a high in the low 80’s with cloudy skies and a 50-percent chance of showers. The winds are light and it doesn’t look like that will have an impact on the race.
KENTUCKY DERBY BETTING TIPS
There are several how-to guides for betting the Derby and Canadian Coates, one of our longtime posters at EveryEdge has run through the process step by step to narrow down his list of contenders. (For more details on Kentucky Derby Betting System, click here)
This process includes looking at number of career races, finishing spots and length of time since the last race. The “four horsemen” that stood the test are:
No. 8 Creative Cause (+1263)
No. 11 Alpha (+1504)
No. 14 Hansen (+1183)
No. 16 El Padrino (+2126)
For our third and final pick of the race, we’ll go with Creative Cause. The middle ground is a good starting spot and the 8-hole has produced 10 winners at Churchill Downs all time. Cause was second at the Santa Anita Derby (April 7) and first at Santa Felipe (Mar. 10). All seven prep races, Cause has finished in the top three.
To summarize, our picks for the 138th Kentucky Derby are:
No. 13 Went the Day Well – currently available at Pinnacle Sports with odds of +2540.
No. 6 Bodemeister (+501)
No. 8 Creative Cause (+1263)
Remember that the Derby is a big field with a lot of traffic. Horses that can keep a good pace, or “stalk”, often perform better than flat out speedsters. Luck can play a big part in how this race unfolds. History and all the Kentucky Derby betting trends will be forgotten once they open the gate and sometimes, even the experts can’t explain what happened out there.
Good luck with your picks!