By Greg Dempson
When all the ducks aren’t lining up in a row, taking a pass is never a bad idea. Since I won’t lay more than –120 in “vig” and I am not that excited about underdogs on this evening’s card, I’m offering up some key angles and top opinions on tonight’s card.
Top Pitching and Team Angles
· Braves starter Julio Teheran is 5–19 to the UNDER in home games when working on five or six days rest with an average combined score of 6.6 RPG.
· Teheran is also 0–7 in seven home starts this season vs. the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 runs but a Cincinnati road record of 8–20 has backed me off this contest
· This season, Indians starter Josh Tomlin is 10–0 vs. the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 runs. Tomlin is also 2–0 against the Royals this season, on May 8, (5–4,) and on June 4, (7–1.) Tomlin’s 7–4 when starting against the Royals with an ERA of 4.71 and a WHIP of 1.214.
· Washington’s starter, Gio Gonzalez is 11–2 to the over vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game the last two seasons.
· The Cubs average 6.0 runs per game on the road this season.
· In the first half of the season the past two seasons Rays starter Jake Odorizzi is 6–18 to the UNDER with an average combined RPG of 6.1.
· The Rays are 2–15 to the UNDER in home games vs. American League teams allowing 4.7 or less runs per game this season.
· The Mariners are 2–4–1 to the under in their last seven games averaging a season low 4.0 RPG.
· Play home teams under the total, (applies to the Nationals,) after three or more consecutive wins when they’re a top tier team winning at least 62% of their games on the season and the over/under is 8 or 8.5 runs. This system is 10–39 = 80% to the under the past five seasons as well as 3–7 to the UNDER this season.
· Play road teams winning 54 to 62% of their games to sail over the total when on the road and off three consecutive loses to a division rival and the over/under is 7 to 8.5 runs, (applies to the Orioles.)
· Play National League road teams over the total when the O/U is 8.5 to 10 runs with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season and playing against a National League opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. This system is 36–11 = 77% to the over the past five seasons.
Home Plate Umpires
· Vic Carapazza is 5–1 to the over when calling balls and strikes in Oakland games.
· The home team is 36–17 when Quinn Wilcott is behind home plate, (Tigers at White Sox.)
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