Week 10 NFL Picks: San Francisco at Arizona 

week 10 arizona

Cardinal RB David Johnson is licking his chops against the league’s 32nd ranked run D

By Pick Sixty Sports

The San Francisco 49ers are in the desert this weekend for their second meeting with the Arizona Cardinals. San Fran fell 33-21 at home in Week 5 and are 1-4 SU/ATS against their NFC West rival since 2014, getting outscored 28-15 on average. It’s prompted the largest pointspread between these teams since 2012, when the Niners were 16.5-point faves en route to their conference title.

SAN FRANCISCO (1-7) AT ARIZONA (3-4-1)

Odds: Cardinals -13.5 and O/U 48.5

The Niners have lost seven-straight since their glorious Week 1 win over the Rams and playing at home off a bye week wasn’t enough to help snap the streak. Coach Chip Kelly’s seat is unofficially getting ‘hot’ but there is some speculation Kelly could bolt back to the college ranks before anyone in San Fran even had a chance to fire him.

The Blaine Gabbert experiment lasted five weeks but Gabbert’s sad performance in the loss to Arizona was the last straw. Colin Kaepernick will make his fourth consecutive start Sunday and he’s coming off a 398-yard, 2-TD game against New Orleans. Kap is 0-4-1 ATS following a 300-plus passing game and this week faces a Cardinal D that’s fourth in opponent completion percentage (58.5) and allowing the third fewest yards through the air (195).

LINE UP

This is already the sixth home game for Arizona and they’ve hosted a wide assortment of teams, from Jimmy Garoppolo and the Patriots down to the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs. One common theme among visitors to U of Phoenix Stadium this year has been their relatively weak offensive lines. According to my power ratings, the average O-Line from the first five teams that stopped in Arizona this season ranked 22nd.

San Francisco will help drag that number even further down the chart with their 32nd ranked O-Line and it doesn’t get any better for the Niners with the status of RB Carlos Hyde (shoulder) in doubt. On the other side of the coin, Arizona is allowing 102 RYPG on the season, 63 RYPG in five home games and only 42 RYPG in its past three home games. San Fran’s D is giving up 193 RYPG overall including 205 in their three road games and home faves laying more than a touchdown in this type of mismatch are 12-0 SU, 7-5 ATS and 1-10-1 O/U.

WEEK 10 PREDICTION

Arizona has won the battle of possession in five of their past six games including the blowout win over the Jets (28-3) and the 6-6 tie against Seattle. The Cards are coming off a cross-country loss in Carolina but they have had a bye week to recover and refocus on this important divisional contest. The “Under” in this situation is 19-6 and riding a 10-game win streak since 2009. With no run game to rely on I’m expecting Kaepernick to struggle and if Arizona can build a lead, they can pound the ball and put this one away.

Play of the Week: Niners and Cards UNDER

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