The Indianapolis Colts are fighting for a playoff spot in the AFC South
The New York Jets are 3-8 on the season and riding a three-game losing streak into their Monday night clash against the Indianapolis Colts. Is it too soon for Gang Green to start mailing it in?
New York’s past three defeats were by margins of 5, 3 and 4 points. That sniffs of effort but would be of little assistance tonight given the 2-point spread. New York is more than capable of being blown away, just check their four-game losing streak from Week’s 3-6, but is Indianapolis capable of administering such a punishment?
Ryan Fitzpatrick’s offense, well, mostly just Fitzpatrick, turned the ball over 13 times during the skid that essentially wiped the Jets from contention. In seven other games, New York has only turned the ball over eight times. Indianapolis, meanwhile, has turned the ball over seven times in its past four games and yet they are playing for a shot at the division. Such is life in the South.
The Colts have been outscored 27.4 to 24.5 on the season and non-divisional road faves with that type of margin are 19-5-2 ATS vs. a losing team like the Jets. Smaller chalk, laying less than -3 points, have a 8-1-1 ATS record and the over is 6-2-2 with all three totals in this range finishing in the 50’s.
In 11 Monday road games played outdoors the Colts have gone just 5-6 SU but the totals were 8-3 O/U and the past two games in this angle finished with 64 and 55 total points. Indy also has the advantage of playing off a Thursday game which on its own, tends to overvalue teams but in this case is a little different.
First of all, Andrew Luck watched that game from the sideline and one of the only things harder than getting whupped like that in front of his home town fans was knowing there was nothing he could do about it. Second is the fact New York is off a divisional game that they actually led, once by 10 points and then again in the fourth quarter. Teams off a home loss that they led by double-digits are 105-148 SU in database history and that includes a 4-13 SU, 5-12 ATS record this season. They’ve been outscored 30-20 on average and totals over 48 finished with 60 points, going 6-2 O/U.
The O-Line for either of these teams ranks in the bottom of the league but New York’s defense in an even bigger letdown. I had their front seven ranked top 5 in September and right now they are 26th. Colts will put up a big number in this game but the Jets should fire back with a bunch of their own. The total is down to 48 and I’m playing this game over.