The Washington Football Club has quietly amassed eight covers in the past nine weeks
Handicappers throughout the football season are faced with a decision on how much weight to give recent events (Ie. Last week’s result) vs. a team’s ‘bigger picture’. Take win-loss records for example. If a team has a winning record on the season but are coming off a loss or even two losses, do we think that team is due?
Obviously the size of that team’s pointspread during the current week will impact our decision, but the real question comes down to ‘value’. The spread is really no indicator of how a team will perform in a certain situation, merely an indicator set forth by the book on how mass public will likely wager on the contest.
In this week’s feature game I’ve highlighted a few key stats and trends leading me to the belief that perhaps the wrong team here is favored.
WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA
Odds: Cardinals -2.5 and O/U 49
The Washington Football Club, or just ‘the Club’ if you prefer, are 2-1 SU since their bye. They have covered four-straight and eight of their past nine. Two of Washington’s losses this year were against Dallas, who everyone loses to, and the others were against Pittsburgh (great team) and the Lions (bad game).
Arizona is 1-2 since their bye, they have lost five-straight games against the spread and have given up 30-plus points in three of four. Each of these teams have outscored their opponents by a small margin on average; 1.5 points per game for Washington and 1.6 for Arizona.
Both were playoff teams last year and expectations were certainly higher for Arizona. Season Win Totals in August were a modest 7.5 for the Club and a lofty 10.0 for the Cards. This short ATS line could be considered a token home field advantage but it continues to project Arizona as the better team. In reality, I would argue that they are more like the bigger letdown.
WEEK 13 PREDICTION
Small road dogs with a tight scoring margin (WFC) are a 60-percent ATS play vs. home teams with similar margins. In conference play, the record improves to 63-percent ATS (39-23-2) and the December record is 17-7 ATS (71-percent). Home teams of any line that have been gashed for 30-plus in three of four (Cards) are a 58-percent ATS play AGAINST and as small chalk, they fall to 19-28 ATS (40-percent). In recent games, these teams are 2-7 ATS. Three would be nice but I’m projecting the road side here to win straight-up so I’ll happily take the 2.5 points.