League wide NFL trends for Week 5 along with our prediction for the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers
Through four weeks of the NFL season we are starting to get a pretty good feel of what some teams are capable of. Two of the undefeated teams, Denver (4-0 SU) and Minnesota (4-0 SU), have strong defensive foundations and a ‘team first’ attitude.
Of the nine 3-1 teams, no one is too surprised to see Pittsburgh, Seattle or New England at the post. Each had to win some tough matchups and all three lost straight-up as a favorite but their net result reinforces the preseason belief that these are serious playoff contenders. As coach Dennis Green would say, “ They are who we thought they were.”
The mix of 2-2 teams is an interesting one and all five of them play their fifth game on the road. Cinci (-1) is at Dallas, Buffalo (+2.5) at Los Angeles, Washington (+4) at Baltimore) and the New York Giants (+7) cap off the Sunday card at Green Bay. Kanas City (2-2 SU) is off with a bye and resumes play in Week 6 at Oakland.
— When the line is within three points of ‘Pick’, the record for 2-2 road teams in their fifth game is 24-15-1 ATS (62-percent)
Under the current divisional format that’s been in place since 2002, Week 5 teams with a .500 record (no bye weeks) are 11-5-1 ATS (69-percent) with 11 overs and 6 unders (65-percent OVER). All of these trends apply this week to the Bengals and Bills and while I’m not personally interested in backing either of those teams, the research makes for a good starting point.
The game that has my attention Sunday is the marquee matchup between Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers.
NEW YORK GIANTS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS
Bovada Odds: Packers -6.5 and O/U 48
The Giants are on the road for a second-straight week and playing with just five days rest off a soft Monday performance in Minnesota. They had 78 yards rushing, two turnovers and less than 25 minutes time of possession in a 24-10 loss. It’s the 14th time in five years New York has lost straight-up by 14 points on the road and they are 0-3 ATS if their next game is away, losing all three by double-digits. New York gave up more than 30 points each time and if Sam Bradford can put up 24, just think what A-Rod could do.
2-2 road teams getting more than a field goal are 16-25 ATS since realignment and when the line gets to +7, these teams are just 4-12 ATS. The bookmaker is tipping us off with the generous line and from what I can see, these Giants are who we thought they were.
New York has a rookie head coach who has already lost his star receiver, mentally. Victor Cruz stands to see more targets if OBJ can’t get his head straight and r-WR Sterling Shepherd is a weapon but Manning needs all three of those guys on point for this offense to be effective. Their run-game is averaging just 94 yards and Rashad Jennings (Check status) could miss again.
The low possession is what could really hurt New York’s chances this week. Playing ON home favorites of more than -3 in this spot (Packers) shows a 60-percent ATS record and HC Mike McCarthy has always done a great job getting his team ready off a bye. The Packers don’t miss too often laying points at home with a non-divisional foe on-deck and they’ve Dallas next. This line could move back to -7 by kickoff so I’m in early at -6.5.