Drew Brees and the Saints are on a 3-1 run after starting the season at 0-3
The New Orleans Saints have already padded bettor’s pockets this season with a 5-2 record against the spread. This week the Saints are looking to remain relevant in the NFC South by moving to .500 with a straight-up win over the Niners.
NEW ORLEANS AT SAN FRANCISCO
One year after Carolina’s dominant 15-1 regular season that was followed by a trip to the Super Bowl, we should have known that division would be wide open to the competition. It has been the nature of the South since league realignment and the Panthers’ streak of three consecutive titles (2013-15) was standing out like a Cubs World Series.
Sean Payton and Drew Brees know they can compete for a title in 2016 and with this defense, they also know that home field during a playoff game is their best bet towards a second or third round. So as the window closes on Brees’ phenomenal NFL career, he has to take advantage of every winnable game and this is one of those weeks.
San Francisco has lost six-straight since their 28-0 win over the Rams in Week 1. They’ve switched quarterbacks and we’ll see if a bye week helps improve Colin Kaepernick’s numbers. Chip Kelly was 2-1 SU/ATS in Week 1’s with Philadelphia and his offense averaged 30 points per game. He also went 2-1 SU off a bye week (26 PPG) but his his defense in the six ‘extra prep’ games at Philadelphia gave up an average 24 points, and they weren’t always playing the Saints.
LET `ER FLY
The Saints are 8-4 O/U in their past eight road games vs. non-divisional foes. They have a 30-19 O/U record off back-to-back unders including a 15-5 O/U record since 2005, and that’s “live” following a 27-21 loss at Kansas City and last week’s 25-20 win over Seattle.
Teams off the Seahawks have only scored an average of 19 points the past four years but New Orleans had a huge time of possession in that game and shouldn’t be slowed by this subpar Niners defense. In fact the past eight road teams off a home win over Seattle are 4-4 O/U including the pitiful Rams, who slugged it out with the Hawks in Week 2 before going into Tampa Bay for a 37-32 shoutout. New Orleans’ offense is far superior to that of Los Angeles and the Bucs D is comparable to San Fran, maybe just a little better.
Brees has had back-to-back games completing more than 77-percent of his passes and road faves in this spot score an average of 30 PPG while allowing 21. The past seven are 5-2 O/U and there’s even a Saints at Niners game in there where each team scored more than 30 points. The scoring avg in those seven is 32-25 (56 total points). The Niners offense is averaging 21 points on the season and they get a prime D to try and open things up against here but it’s going to be a track meet. Kelly faced the Saints twice with Philly and each contest cracked 50 total points. Look for this one to do the same.