Saints games averaged the highest betting totals in the league last season (49.9) and in 2016, we can look for that trend to continue
The Saints were giving up 31.5 points per game during the first 10 weeks of 2015 and they made a change at defensive coordinator. Dennis Allen helped trim that average by 4.7 PPG down the stretch and New Orleans split its final six games 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS. This team will continue to generate its fair share of offense but to get back above .500, they’ll need the D to help win a game or two for them.
LAST YEAR’S RECORD & 2016 NFL FUTURES
Win-Loss: 7-9 SU and 8-7-1 ATS
Over/Under: 9-6-1 O/U
Noteworthy: Sean Payton’s first year with the Saints was 2006 and he’s 87-57 SU and 75-65-4 ATS through the first nine seasons. Payton’s had a losing record three times, going 7-9 SU each year. His average number of wins is 9.7 per season.
Odds to Win Conference: 33 to 1
Season Win Total Odds: 6.5 Over (-140); 6.5 Under (+110)
Schedule makers didn’t do the Saints any favors from Week’s 6 to 11, where they’ll face the Chiefs, Hawks and Broncos, bookended by a pair of games vs. the Panthers. On the front and backend’s, however, New Orleans gets eight or nine winnable matchups. In all likelihood, Saints games are going to be decided in the last five minutes so one strategy could be to simply take the points.
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Drew Brees has a host of playmaking targets, depth at running back and a solid O-Line providing thier veteran pivot plenty of time. The D-Line is stronger up front with first rounder Sheldon Rankins but the second level still looks weak. Balanced offenses will no doubt rack up yards vs. New Orleans so don’t be surprised seeing more than half the team’s totals close at 50-plus.
SAINTS BOTTOM LINE: SERVE IT COLD
The Saints’ 24-6 road loss in Houston last season ended a seven-game ATS win streak for HC Sean Payton following a regular season or playoff bye week. It marked the first time in Payton’s pro coaching career that his team was kept out of the endzone (155 games).
This season, the Saints bye comes in Week 6 and they have a favorable September schedule leading up to the break (Raiders, Giants, Falcons, Chargers). Circle that Week 3 matchup vs. Atlanta as a good opportunity to scout the Saints on Monday Night Football. Carolina visits the Big Easy in Week 6 for their third consecutive divisional game. The Panthers have a bye on-deck and the Saints are playing with triple revenge. Getting more than a field goal, this could be a nice opportunity for backing the home side with extra prep.