by Greg Dempson
Off a rare road loss, the Houston Astros send Charlie Morton to the mound tonight vs. Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez. Morton last pitched on May 24. This season has ERA is 4.06, WHIP of 1.370. His road ERA is higher at 6.89, WHIP of 1.723. In nine starts this season Morton is 6-3 to the over.
Blue Jays starter Sanchez, (who also returns off the disabled list,) is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.50 in four career games against Houston. Sanchez has made 5 starts this season and his ERA is 3.33, WHIP of 1.274.
Houston has the better bullpen of the two teams with a road ERA of 3.82, WHIP of 1.224 while Toronto counters with bullpen ERA of 4.68, WHIP of 1.294 at home.
· Houston is 19-7 to the over and +11.20-units on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
· Toronto is +25.60-units to the over in home games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 62% or greater
· The Astros are 18-09 to the over as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season.
· The Blue Jays are 9-3 to the over in their last 12 games when umpire Dana DeMuth is behind home plate
· Houston is 20-09 to the over and +10.10-units after two or more consecutive road games this season.
· Home plate umpire Dana DeMuth is 18-09-01 to the over the past two seasons when calling balls and strikes in American League games
· DeMuth is also 19-12-02 to the over when two righties face one another.
· Play all teams batting .260 or less to sail over the total when the O/U is 9 to 9.5 runs when playing against an American League starter whose ERA is 4.20 or lower, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season. This system is 103-54 = 65.6% and +47.30-units.
Everyedge.com Record Review
· My record with wagered on MLB selections at Every Edge this season is 7-10-2 and -2.76-units as the Phillies in the first 5 innings at +110 lost last night.
My Every Edge selection for this game is to take the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays over the total of 9.5 runs @ -115.