Although I’m sure they’re ready to see Texas in the rear view mirror, the Tour hangs in the Lone Star state for one more week before hightailing it to Ohio.
Weather has been wreaking havoc on the TPC Four Seasons course, host of the Byron Nelson Classic.
But tornadoes, torrential rain and wind gales like the SS Minnow saw won’t dampen our spirit – so onward we push with our Byron Nelson Classic Matchup Picks.
Gonna be wet and windy at the Byron Nelson this week. Bettors take note.
Weather aside, another big storyline is hometown hero Jordan Spieth, who returns to a course he’s played a million times, but never as the Masters Champ.
The fav to win it all, I expect him to be in the mix come Sunday, but I’m giving him a wide berth when it comes to 72-hole matchup bets. The price is high and there is better value elsewhere.
Which is the perfect segue into my matchup picks for this week (note that we’re 3-3 on our golf picks so far this season, but up a little due to the plus-money plays).
Byron Nelson Classic Matchup Picks
Jason Day (+111) over Dustin Johnson
I originally was going to steer clear of backing Day in any matchups, but against the farther of Wayne Gretzky’s first grandchild, I actually like the number and matchup.
This is a par 70 course, which minimizes the impact of Par5s and the players who feast on them for a living. Players like DJ. Johnson is playing great and can obviously post a great number on a par 70 course. But Day tops the list for Par 3 and Par 4 scoring on the tour.
That said, length will still be a plus, as it’s likely to be a soft track, but Day has no issues with bombing the ball as well.
Edge to the Aussie.
Another edge to the Aussie – the weather. The Australians grow up playing in windy weather conditions and usually have a comfort level that surpasses many US raised players. The wind is expected to play a role throughout the week.
Byron Nelson Classic Matchup Pick: Jason Day +111 (at Pinnacle Sports)
Tony Finau (+102) over Boo Weekley
I’m a Finau fan was hoping to see him in a matchup I could work with this week. I can work with this. Tony had a nice start to the season before a somewhat predictable chill set in, but he’s rounding back into form the last couple of times out, including an 18th place finish at the Crowne Plaza last week. He’s got the game to post a low number. I’ll give him a shot.
Byron Nelson Classic Matchup Pick: Tony Finau +102 (at Pinnacle Sports)
Charley Hoffman (-110) over Matt Kuchar
Hoffman is in a good head space, he loves to play in Texas, knows the course and can handle the wind. And something else you likely didn’t know – Charley is seventh overall in the FedEx Cup race.
Byron Nelson Classic Matchup Pick: Charley Hoffman -110 (at Bet365)
Worth noting: Justin Thomas
I wasn’t able to find a matchup that clicked for me involving Justin Thomas at Pinnacle Sports or Bet365, but I’m going to look around a bit more. He was on my radar to back at this tourney and I’d still like to.
The Byron Nelson has a history of popping cherries, as four of the last five winners stood on 18 celebrating the first victory of their PGA careers.
Thomas doesn’t miss cuts (or at least hasn’t since March) and he hangs around. He’s finished 24th or better in each of his last four tourneys (including Top 12 in three of them) and just keeps looking more and more comfortable. Sunday has been a bit of a roller coaster ride for you if you’re backing Thomas, but I’m willing to take that Sunday ride this week if I can find a good matchup.
Enjoy the golf and be sure to check the Everyedge Sports Betting Forum for more picks on this week’s sports action.