By Greg Dempson
Pinnacle Odds: BYU Cougars +2.5 at San Francisco Dons -2.5 Total 153.5
Tip time is 11:00pm ET in this WCC contest with the BYU Cougars heading to ‘Frisco off an embarrassing straight up road loss at Pepperdine as 9 point favorites, (99–83.) The Dons defeated that same Pepperdine team, albeit at home, nine days ago, (77–56) as 10.5 point favorites. San Francisco has certainly turned their season around as they are 7–1 straight up since losing four straight from December 31 until January 12. The Dons have also been profitable vs. the spread having gone 8–2 ATS in their last 10 while the Cougars are 3–6–1 ATS in their last 10. BYU is also dealing with injuries/illness as Corbin Kaufusi is questionable for tonight’s game and guard Nick Emery is not 100%.
This line opened at –3.5 at a few books with numerous offshore “outs” listing the Dons at –3 while a handful had ‘Frisco at –2.5.
Road Weary vs. Happy at Home
- San Francisco is 41–21 ATS after covering six or seven of their last eight ATS.
- BYU has not performed well away from home this season going 4–7 straight up and an even poorer 3–8 straight up.
- The Dons use their bench efficiently rotating 10 players and this should work to their advantage as the Cougars are playing their second road game in three nights.
- The Cougars are 62–112 ATS and -61.20-units in road games vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points per game.
- San Francisco is 50–26 ATS and +21.40-units off a home win against a conference rival.
- BYU is -38.20-units in road games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.
The Coaches Corner
- BYU head coach Rose/Team is 25–49 ATS and -28.90-units as an underdog.
- San Francisco’s head coach Smith/Team is 9–0 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite.
- BYU Coach Rose/Team is -28.80-units vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots.
Super Systems
- Should the line creep up to –3.5 the following two systems are live in this game.
- Following a straight up road loss as a favorite of 7 or more points, play against all underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points. This system is 47 – 19 = 71% ATS since 1997.
- Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 or more points following a home straight up but no-cover win as a favorite. This system is 37–10 = 79% ATS the past five seasons.
Every Edge in Review
- I lost my last College selection on Arizona and I’m 1–3 ATS in College and 3–1 ATS in the NBA. Let’s right the ship, (hopefully,) with tonight’s selection.
College Basketball Pick
My Saturday night Every Edge selection is on the San Francisco Dons and I’ve laid –2.5 points at –110.