The Toronto Blue Jays battled twice from behind Tuesday to even the series with Milwaukee. Starting pitchers are in short supply but home run power is surging and online sportsbooks face a tough dilemma setting odds for betting the side and total in today’s contest. For today’s baseball picks and a wagering preview, we handicap the starting pitchers with a look at trends and betting stats for each team
Yovani Gallardo will look to quiet a Blue Jays lineup that has crawled within one of the New York Yankees for first overall in home runs
Wednesday marks and early start for the Blue Jays and Brewers but there is still no line as of2:30 amPT because Toronto is yet to announce their starting pitcher. Three possibilities are Deck McGuire, Chad Jenkins or perhaps Luis Perez (2-1, 2.86 ERA) out of the bullpen.
Perez started four games late last season and they got progressively worse. First was a 1-0 shutout where he only allowed one hit through six innings, then his earned runs went up (2-5-8) while his innings went down. By his fourth start, he didn’t make it past the third inning and Boston had already put up eight runs in what turned into a 14-0 rout.
All 28 appearances this year have been in relief and he’s only given up two home runs, something to consider when pitching at Milwaukee. As of today, Miller Park ranks fifth in 2012 MLB Park Factor at 1.289 and the top 5 parks so far this year are Coors Field, US Cellular, Chase Field, Marlins Park and Miller Park.
There were four dingers in Monday’s 7-6 Brewer win and seven more in Toronto’s 10-9 win on Tuesday (six by the Jays). Hitters get a great look at the ball at Miller thanks to a black backdrop in center field directly in-line with the pitching mound. They can “see” the ball out of the pitcher’s hand.
The Jays jumped to second last night in overall home runs with 100, one behind the New York Yankees. 53 were hit at Rogers Centre and 47 have come on the road.
Milwaukee has 82 home runs this season, tied with Colorado for second in the National League behind St. Louis (83). 48 of Milwaukee’s homers are at home and 34 were hit on the road.
YOU MAKE THE CALL-UP
McGuire is a first round draft pick from 2010 with a 2-8 record and 6.62 ERA at New Hampshire. Jenkins is 3-6 with a 5.20 ERA. Whoever starts will be working ahead of a depleted bullpen that worked 6.1 innings Tuesday and four innings in the series opener.
The Blue Jays pen has 3.85 ERA and they’ve surrendered 29 home runs, second most in the majors (Astros).
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BREW MASTER
The Brewers did not get a chance to use their ace, Zack Greinke, during this series but today’s starter Yovani Gallardo (5-5, 4.23 ERA) is tied for second in team wins with Shaun Marcum.
Gallardo has logged 83 innings over his 14 starts and he’s thrown more than 100 pitches nine straight games. The 26-year-old right-hander is 3-1 in his last five outings but he’s given up six long balls after allowing just one in his previous eight starts.
Eight of his 11 home runs this season were at Miller Park but he’s held hitters to a .235 average compared with .279 away from home. In 2011, Gallardo only gave up 10 home runs in 16 home starts and June has been his most productive month since 2008, with opposing teams hitting just .221 against him.
RUN THE BASES
– Toronto’s 1 to 4 hitters are batting .421 in this series with six home runs, seven RBI and eight runs scored
– Milwaukee is 6-1 their past seven games against the Blue Jays
– The Jays have a 14-11 record in day games this year and Milwaukee is 9-18, but Gallardo is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in six early starts. Teams are hitting .239 against him with five home runs
– Sunny skies are in the forecast with winds around 15 mph from right to left. The roof is expected to be open
– The Brewers are 17-6 when outhitting their opponent and 26-10 this season when scoring at least four runs
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