by Greg Dempson
After dropping the first two games at home, the Celtics won four in a row and eliminated the Bulls in Chicago, (105-83.) As for Washington, they went into Atlanta and crushed the Hawks, (115-99.)
That win by the Wizards was impressive as they have not been as strong on the road, (20-24,) vs. their home record of (33-11.) So, what can we expect in game one in this second round series? From a statistical point of view here are some first half and full game systems for both games as either the Jazz or the Clippers will advance to the second round later this afternoon.
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, (1:00 ET on ABC)
First Half Systems
· After three consecutive covers as a favorite play on home teams in the first half in the month of April. This system is 49-18 = 73% since 1996 as well as 10-04 ATS the past five seasons. The average first half line in this system has been 5.3 vs. a first half MOV of 8.4 points.
· From game 43 out, when the first half total is greater than 105 points, in a game involving two good ball handling teams that allow 14.5 or less turnovers per game, play the first half to sail over the total. This system is 314-230 = 58% to the over and +61.0-units the past five seasons.
Full Game System
· In the second round of the playoffs, play all games to sail over the total when the O/U is 210 or greater, this system is 70-36 = 66% to the over as well as 20-04 = 83% to the over the past three seasons. The average total has been slightly more than 215 vs. an average combined final score of 221.6 PPG.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers, (3:30 ET on ABC)
Without Blake Griffin the Clippers went into Utah, and in a must win situation, they defeated the Jazz and we are now treated to a first round game 7 elimination contest. Blake Griffin is still out with an injured ankle while the Jazz have concerns about the status of their key defender, Rudy Gobert. I’m positive he’ll play but he isn’t 100%.
First Half Systems
· In the month of April, when the first half total is between 95.5 to 100.5 points, play teams winning between 60% to 75% of their games to stay under the total. This system is 115-183 = 61% and +56.50-units when betting the first half to stay the under the total dating back to 1996 as well as 3-6 to the under this month. The average posted first half total has been 98 vs. a combined first half score of slightly less than 96 points, so while the system has been successful the margin of victory has been very close.
· Following an upset straight up loss as a home favorite, when the first half total is between 95.5 to 100.5 points play the first half under the total when the game is being played on Sunday. This system is 72-131 = 64.5% to the under since 1996 as well as 14-35 = 71% to the under the past five seasons. For some reasons Sunday afternoon games have a tendency to stay under the total. Perhaps too much Saturday Night Fever may be one explanation plus this is an early start game due to ABC’s national broadcast, (at 12:30 Pacific Time.)
Full Game System
· After an upset loss as a home favorite, when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and the contest is played on a Sunday, play the full game under the total. This system is 12-36 = 75% to the under the past five seasons as well as 06-18 = 75% to the under the previous three seasons and 77-127 = 62% to the under since 1996 with an average combine score of 190.6 PPG in this system.