NFC Wild Card Playoff – Giants at Packers 1st Half Pick

By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: NY Giants +5 at Green Bay Packers -5 Total 44.5

Are the Packers getting too much love for home field advantage in perhaps the hardest of all four Wild Card games to handicap with the line currently favoring Green Bay at –5 and –5.5 after opening at –4?

Considering the prowess of the Giants on the road in the playoffs, and especially at Lambeau Field, perhaps the answer is yes! Eli Manning has led the Giants to two post season straight up wins at Green Bay. In both those victories the Giants went on to win the Super Bowl. I note that Green Bay has lost three of their last six post season home games straight up, so who brings home the money Sunday night?

From the Stats Department

Manning is 2–0 straight up at Lambeau Field while Rodgers is 2–2.
In the last six games Aaron Rodgers threw 15 touchdowns with zero interceptions. In four of those six games Green Bay accounted for 30 or more points while winning all six.
The Giants allowed 10 or less points in three of their last four games vs. Dallas, (7 points,) Detroit, (6 points,) as well s (24,) at Philadelphia and (10,) at Washington.
Something has to give as Green Bay was ranked #2 in third down conversions and#10 in the red zone while the Giants were ranked #2 in defending third down conversions and first in red zone defense.
The right side of Green Bay’s defense was exploited by the Lions and I’m certain that is where the Giants will try and attack tonight.
Eli Manning is 4–1 ATS vs. Green Bay in games coached by Mike McCarthy.
Green Bay has scored 24 or more points in seven of their last eight games.
New York/Manning is outscored by 5.7 PPG vs. teams winning between 57% – 67% of their games.
Mike McCarty is 46–25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the Packers head coach. McCarty is also 20–08 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as Green Bay’s head coach.
Aaron Rodgers is 31–14 ATS in all home games when favored.

The First Half

My first Wild Card opinion on Oakland in the first half was a winner, one “W” up and three opinions to go as this article was written before the results of the Detroit/Seattle game are known and obviously before Sunday’s games.

First Half Systems

In the first half, play on favorites winning between 60% to 75% of their games, (applies to playing on Green Bay,) after a road game whereby each team scored 24 or more points. This system is 30–11 = 73% ATS the past 10 seasons as well as 63–30 = 68% ATS in the firsthalf since 1983.
After beating the spread by 21 or more combined points in the first half, play against underdogs of –2 to –6 points with a winning straight up record. This system is 18–06 = 72% ATS when playing against the Giants in the first half.

1st Half Pick

I have a beer and pizza Every Edge opinion on the Packers –3 at –125 in the first half.