Spring practice is done and optimism is running high on campuses from coast-to-coast.
It’s all good right now – the Bulldogs haven’t shown up yet and hung 50-plus on your team (yes, we’re looking at you Vanderbilt), your star tailback hasn’t rolled his brand new Escalade (thanks boosters) and your QB’s girlfriend’s best friend hasn’t got back the paternity results – everything is sunshine and roses.
Even when Peyton was big man on campus I rarely backed the Vols – that’s changed.
But at some point, the season will kick off and reality will come knocking.
5Dimes has posted odds for their SEC Season Win Totals.
Alabama: 9.5 (over -145, under +105)
Arkansas: 8.5 (over +120, under -160)
Auburn: 8.5 (over +100, under -140)
Florida: 7.5 (over -125, under -115)
Georgia: 9 (over -135, under -105)
Kentucky: 6 (over -120, under -120)
LSU: 8 (over -115, under -125)
Ole Miss: 8.5 (over -110, under -130)
Mississippi State: 7 (over -110, under -130)
Missouri: 7.5 (over -120, under -120)
South Carolina: 7 (over -120, under -120)
Tennessee: 7.5 (over -140, under +100)
Texas A&M: 7.5 (over -135, under -105)
Vanderbilt: 3 (over -135, under -105)
One thing we know: teams are going to underachieve, overachieve and meet expectations. I’m trying to find those that fit in the first two categories and make some money off their deviation.
Here is my first SEC Season Win Total Pick
Tennessee Over-7.5
Hate paying this much juice, so I’ll be looking to bet this “Over” at 8 and grab the plus money. I’m not suggesting anyone lay the -140, but if I can’t get it at 8 over the summer, I personally will hold my nose and hit the 7.5 (-140) to win a unit.
That should tell you how much I like the Vols this season. And full disclosure, I’ve never been a Vols fan…ever (although I’m a fan of the orange unis with the white trim – very collegiate).
Now we always need to keep in mind this is the Tennessee football program, so the odds are quite high they can F this thing up, but looking at their 2015 lineup and schedule, I count nine or 10 wins. I’m booking a loss in Tuscaloosa on October 24 but I don’t think it’s out of the possibility they can realistically win every other “challenge” week on the schedule (they won’t, but I just can’t seem them losing four more game – no way)
The offense has veteran playmakers and a while the O-line won’t be “SEC-dominant” they do return four starters. The defense has returning starters in key positions and returning depth. They’re solid from the front line all the way back.
I’m predicting we see a SEC Championship game appearance from them. The first since 2007.
SEC Season Win Total Picks: Vols Over 8 (or over 7.5 laying -140 if you’re inclined)
Check back throughout the summer as I’ll be adding another play or two as we get closer to the kick-off of the new season.
Stop by the Everyedge Sports Betting Forum for picks and discussion on all the sports action.