The Green Bay Packers have taken top spot with online sportsbooks as this year’s best bet to win the Super Bowl
The NFL landscape changed dramatically over the preseason with injuries to Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater and Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo. Once considered top challengers for their division title, the updated Super Bowl odds show the Vikings and Cowboys at +2800, behind 12 other teams.
TOP SUPER BOWL PICKS
As of September 1, the top favorite to to win the NFC and Super Bowl in 2016-17 is the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers is getting his top target back this season and although Jordy Nelson’s involvement during preseason was limited, Packers HC Mike McCarthy sounds confident that Nelson will be at full speed for Week 1.
Here is a list of the top 12 teams getting action with futures bettors to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February.
CHALK TALK
Green Bay’s odds to win the division went from -140 to -275 on the news of Bridgewater’s injury. Conference odds changed from +525 down to +350 and let’s be honest, if the Packers secure home field with a potential bye week, they’ll be a much tougher out for the likes of Seattle, Arizona or Carolina.
For starters, each of those teams plays in a much milder climate than the Packers or in the Cardinals’ case, indoors. Green Bay has played host to those three teams 12 times since 2002 and holds an impressive 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS record against them, outscoring their opponents by an average score of 32-18.
In more recent years the Packers hosted each team once (3-0 SU/ATS). Back in 2012, it was Green Bay over the Cardinals 31-17. In 2014, the Pack took down the Panthers 38-17 and then in 2015, they handled Seattle 27-17.
The thing to keep in mind, though, is that all of this has been factored by the books on a strong assumption that Green Bay will cruise to a 13-3 or 14-2 record in the regular season. One sportsbook manager even told us that the amount of “sharp money” that came in on Green Bay following the the Bridgewater injury was so great, they had to overcompensate their line moves.
Buying into a bad line is never a good idea, no matter how strong your data or gut instinct suggests otherwise. So from my perspective, the Packers are on the ‘Stay Away List’ for futures betting. From the top contenders in the NFC, I’d sooner take the Hawks, Cards or Panthers, each of whom are paying back on a premium price with the public’s knee-jerk reaction.
LONG SHOTS FOR THE LONGTERM
Anyone that invests in futures betting, whether it’s NFL Season Win Totals or on the odds to win the Super Bowl, realizes they are tying up their money for more than four months. Some bettors do this just so they can cheer for their team all season and that’s totally fine, but regardless of your motive it’s always worth taking a look down the list of team’s to try and spot a value pick.
For starters, consider the Vikings or Cowboys at 28 to 1 odds. Minnesota still has the top favorite to win the NFL rushing title (Adrian Peterson at +400) and a ferocious defense that’s strong on all three levels. Dallas’ new starting QB Dak Prescott has looked really impressive in camp and could end up being a blessing in disguise for the Cowboys with his mobility. Not to mention the fact that Romo may return later in the season.
In the AFC, the Jacksonville Jaguars (+4000) are an intriguing long shot with an explosive offense and improved defense. The Colts will return to double-digit wins with Andrew Luck under center and don’t count out those Oakland Raiders. The Silver and Black have one of the top offensive lines in football and with an improved ground game, could generate one of the conference’s most complete offenses this season. Rookie RB DeAndre Washington is looking good and gunslinger Derek Carr has the look of a winner.
Be sure and check out the EveryEdge Season Win Total Contest and good luck with your predictions. You can also stop by the forum daily to discuss your thoughts with other like minded bettors.