Los Angeles makes its first appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals since 1993 Wednesday as playoff road favorites against the New Jersey Devils
New Jersey has allowed 2.33 goals per game through three rounds – the exact playoff goals-against average for all three of the Kings opponents
Opening on the road is old hat for the Kings and the team has flourished away from Staples Center throughout the playoffs, going 8-0. Online sportsbooks mark LA as a -106 favorite for Game 1 and -175 moneyline favorite to win the best of seven series.
– Los Angeles was a +171 dog in Round 1 against the Canucks, +140 to win Round 2 vs. the Blues before finally moving into the role of series favorite, -109 at Phoenix
In Game 1 of each series, the Kings outscored Vancouver (4-2), St. Louis (3-1) and Phoenix (4-2) by a combined 11-5 score and led all Western teams with a 2.9 goals per game average. Overall, LA outscored opponents 14-7 in the first period but no team could match New Jersey’s 23-9 goal differential through the first 20 minutes.
In the last two games of the Rangers series, New Jersey outscored New York 5-1 in the opening frame and Jonathan Quick (12-2, 1.54 GAA, .946) will expect to be tested early and often. Quick’s numbers were just as strong away from home (8-0, 1.55 GAA, .948 SV) and in one regular season start at New Jersey he stopped 36 of 37 shots in a 2-1 shootout loss (Oct. 13).
40 SOMETHING
Martin Brodeur’s story needs little introduction by this point and the 40-year-old has once again been steady through these playoffs, posting a 12-5 record with a 2.04 goals-against (GAA) and .923 save percentage. In Cup Finals, Brodeur is 15-9 all-time with a 1.91 GAA and right now, playing his best post-season hockey since the Cup run of 2003 when he was 16-8 with a 1.65 GAA.
“NOT SO SIMPLE” RANKING SYSTEM
This method for predicting series winners had an impressive 70-percent run the past five years but it’s been hitting below 50-percent in 2012 (6-8 ATS) and the Los Angeles Kings (0-3) are a big reason for the falloff. It’s because the ratings are based on a full 82-game season – not the post-trade deadline era where Los Angeles was able to begin a subtle, yet definitive transition of its playing style.
Kings, pre-All-Star break, averaged 2.14 GPG (30th)
Kings, months of March-April averaged 3.00 GPG (7th)
During the playoffs, Los Angeles is averaging 2.93 goals per game (GPG) and that’s against three opponents whose combined goals-against is 2.33 (70/30).
NHL PICKS
That 2.33 GAA just so happens to be the Devils’ exact goals-against through 18 games (43/18 = 2.33 GAA) and while it’s fair to say the Devils are peaking right now, the stats show that Los Angeles has consistently hit high notes right at the start of each series.
Round 1, the Kings scored 12 goals in five games and 8 were in the first two games at Vancouver
Round 2, the Kings scored eight more goals in the first two games at St. Louis and finished the series with a 3.75 GPG average (15/4)
Round 3, Los Angeles scored four goals each in games 1, 2, and 5 – all of which were played on the road
Los Angeles has 5 overs and 3 unders during its eight playoff road games and the total at Pinnacle Sports for tonight’s game is 4.5 Over (-122) and. Both games against the Devils stayed under this season were in October and the vast majority of LA’s Eastern Time Zone road games – the ones that went 1-9 O/U – were played before the All-Star break.
Pick: Take the Over
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