Baseball Betting Trends – 4th of July Hot Dogs

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by Greg Dempson

Happy fourth of July to all Every Edge American readers. A total of 10 games will start before the usual 7:00 ET weekday day start because of the Independence holiday. I’m offering up information on hot money line underdogs, “hot dogs” that won’t put a bit into your bankroll from a money line perspective and hopefully some of this info will cash in….if you are so inclined.

One of the hot dogs who won’t be on the diamonds but at Coney Island as hot dog guru Joey Chestnut as he’s back to defend his crown from last season where he set an all time record eating 70 dogs. It will be broadcast live on ESPN2 and some of the books will post a prop on the over/under as to how many he’ll eat. I’m sure he’ll cut the mustard and win again this year.

Here are three dogs that might cut the mustard on the diamonds today/night

New York Mets at Washington Nationals, (11:00 ET start)

  • The Mets average 5.7 RPG in daytime games while the Nationals average 4.7 RPG.
  • Mets starter Lugo is is 1-1 vs. the Nationals with an ERA of 2.63, WHIP of 1.097.
  • Nationals starter Ross is 1-2 when starting against the Mets with an ERA of 4.71 and a WHIP of 1.326.
  • Play against teams any team, (applies to the Nationals,) with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season that averages 1.25 or more home runs per game on the season. This system is 240-171 and +67.20-units the past five seasons.

Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics, (4:10 ET) 

  • White Sox starter Shields has an ERA of 2.65, WHIP of 1.176 in three road starts and is 6-6 vs. the A’s with an ERA of 4.64 and a WHIP of 1.264.
  • Oakland’s starter Gossett won this season at Chicago, (10-02,) allowing two earned in 6 innings.
  • Oakland is -33.90-units against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher the last three seasons.
  • The White Sox are 6-1 at Oakland the past three seasons.
  • Play against A/L home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, with a team on base percentage .310 or worse. This system is 85-61 = 58% and +51.50-units.

Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves, (7:35 ET)

  • Play on home teams batting .215 or worse in their last 5 games when starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less hitters in each of his last two starts. This system is 535-340 = 61% and +!53.60-units.
  • Play against July road teams who are outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs per game on the season.This system is 53-28 = 65% the past five seasons. in Review

  • I had 9 runs after 4 innings with my last wagered on EE selection on the Nationals/Cardinals over and the game pushed. My Every Edge record for this season is 7-9-2 and -1.760-units.
  • I offer up these three “Hot Dog” games as opinions only and good luck with your wagers today and this evening.


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