Baseball Pick – New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics

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Pinnacle Odds: New York Yankees -111 at Oakland Athletics +103 Total 8.5 

by Greg Dempson

In this 10:05 ET start the Athletics return home with their tail between their legs after a dismantling of 11-06 yesterday in Florida vs. the Marlins. Oakland sends Sonny Gray to the mound. In four starts Gray is1-2 vs. the Yankees with an ERA of 4.44 ERA, WHIP of 1.356. In his lone start last season he lost to the Yankees (8-3,) lasting only 3.3 innings while allowing 5 runs, (4 earned.) Gray/A’s has fared much better at home this season at 3-1 with an ERA of 2.92, WHIP of 1.013.

The Yankees counter with Jordan Montgomery who has a road ERA of 3.21, WHIP of 1.357. This Montgomery’s first start vs. Oakland. Montgomery has pitched well in June, going 2-0 in two starts with 13 strikeouts in 13 innings. The 24-year-old has allowed just 4 earned runs in his last four outings.

My focus on tonight’s game is the total backed by pitching and team angles plus two winning totals system.

The Not So “Gray” Area

  • Gray/Team is 10-0 OVER and +10.0-units as an underdog of +100 to +150 the last two seasons with an average combined score of 13.6 RPG.
  • Gray/Team is 13-04 OVER when the money line is + or -125 the last two seasons.
  • The last two seasons Gray/Team is 17-07 to the OVER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game.
  • Gray/Team is 20-09 OVER in all games the last two seasons with an average combined score of 10.1 RPG.

Added Angles

  • The Yankees are 22-12 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
  • The Athletics are 11-01 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
  • The Yankees are 28-16 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.
  • Oakland is 15-05 OVER after having lost three of their last four games this season with an average combined score of 10.0 RPG.

Winning Systems

  • After allowing 9 or more runs, play all teams OVER the total when playing against opponent that’s off two straight losses by 2 runs or less.This system is 33-10 = 76.7% to the over the past five seasons.
  • When the total is 7 to 8.5 runs play all home teams OVER when supported by a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season and playing against an opponent with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. This system is 238-160 = 60% to the over the past five seasons and +69.60-units of profit. in Review 

I’m 6-8-1 with this season’s MLB offerings and -1.71-units.

Baseball Pick

My selection for tonight is on the New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics over 8.5 runs @ -110 with listed pitchers.


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