Baseball Picks: Marlins at Red Sox

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The Miami Marlins look for a win against a Boston Red Sox team that has cashed winning tickets at the betting window in six of their last seven games


The Boston Red Sox were 0-3 last year after a big blowout win, scoring an average of 4.0 runs


The Miami Marlins are slumping in June and this Interleague trip to Fenway has not helped the cause. Miami scored five runs each of the past two nights but they are only hitting .219 on the road this season and have sunk below .500 with a 1-4 record the past week at Tampa Bay and Boston.


Fenway Park was not very “friendly” for the Red Sox in terms of win-loss this season but they have cranked out the second-most runs in the American League behind Texas and are scoring 5.43 runs per game at home.


The Sox are 8-6 against Interleague teams and after last night’s 15-5 win, sports betting sites have made Boston a -139 money line favorite with a total of 11 Over (-106). Boston is 9-3 this season when favored between -125 and -150 but home teams off a blowout win who scored 15-plus runs are just 3-10 the past two seasons.



Carlos Zambrano (4-5, 3.92 ERA) faced the Red Sox once last season with Chicago and allowed three earned runs through 5.2 innings but he averaged 21.5 innings per pitch. His last two starts against Tampa lasted less than three innings but he’s posted a respectable 3-2 road record with a 2.36 ERA. Of his seven road starts, only two finished over the total (2-5 O/U).


Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-2, 5.73 ERA) is making his third start since returning from Tommy John and the Sox would like to see him get to 100 pitches tonight after throwing 80 and 93 his first two outings. Opponents are hitting just .223 in Matsuzaka’s last ten starts and his last five Interleague dates produced a 1-3-1 Over/Under record.



Mike DiMuro (3-3, 1-5 O/U) has called five-straight unders with games averaging just 5.6 runs per game. Five of his last seven games involving the Marlins stayed under and all three games with Zambrano starting stayed under the total by more than two runs (5.17 avg).


– In Interleague ball, DiMuro has called 5 overs and 10 unders since 2007 with an average of 7.9 runs scored per game



One sports handicapping site suggests up to 72-percent action on the Sox for this game but drop-off for teams after a bashing like last night sends up caution flags for us on the side. Boston was “live” three times in this profile last season and they were outscored 21-12, or 3.0 runs per game.


Two of those three did go over the number but the Marlins do not pose a big threat offensively, even at the cozy confines of Fenway Park. Each of these bullpens has put up good numbers and they should have enough arms to get this series done and put away. I’m looking at the under as a value play for my Thursday night total.

Pick: Take the Under 11 runs


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