San Diego begins its three-game series at Philadelphia tonight, one of three Major League Baseball games that fits an Over/Under betting profile based on line value and look-ahead factor. Also live are Johan Santana (below) and the Mets at Miami and Atlanta at St. Louis. Three Friday night baseball picks to set up the weekend!
Calm before the Storm MLB betting profile looks at Over/Under tendencies for teams who have a bona fide ‘Ace’ on-deck
The Padres won two of three home games against Colorado this week but building momentum has been a season-long struggle for San Diego. Against Vance Worley, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, the odds are stacked against the Padres continuing that winning trend through the weekend and for the series opener, online sportsbooks have posted a line of Phillies -153 and 7.5 Under (-113).
Overall, San Diego is 2-7 on the road this season with 4 overs, 4 unders and a push. The Phillies have played over the total six consecutive games to prop their Over/Under record to 19 overs and 13 unders, but we think runs could come at a premium this evening.
CALM BEFORE THE STORM
Philadelphia is 8-5 O/U at home this season and the day before Doc Halladay pitches, the Phillies have posted 3 overs and 3 unders. Halladay is not having his most spectacular start but as the season settles in, Doc’s numbers are sure to improve. This is an opportunity for bettors to jump on Over/Under line value for the Phillies before the staff ERA makes 7.5’s history – the Calm before the Storm!
The theory is that when the ace is scheduled to pitch, bookmakers are going to automatically be looking to post a low number. Opponent, recent trends and other factors will need to be considered but the game before the ‘Ace’ it is usually going to be a much higher total.
Where the value kicks in is that other than the Ace’s W/L record and ERA, all of the things that bettors will consider during tomorrow’s game are “live” now. Barring an injury, it’s mostly the same team. Opponent may change and opposing starter is critical in setting the line but this is infer-active handicapping – a mix between having an inference and being proactive.
Do hitters on a team hit differently when they know their ace is on the mound tomorrow? Does an “Under” in today’s game help the oddsmaker attract more action to the “Over” in tomorrow’s game (due factor)? The line will be very low and with a top ace on the mound it’s often hard to attract action on the “Over” even though they obviously do happen.
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
The key to start tracking this profile is that teams need to have been through the starting rotation at least six times. In 2010, the Phillies were 5-6 O/U immediately before a Halladay start and when the team had an off-day before his starts (start No. 8 and 12); results were 1-1 O/U. In the first month Philly was 3-1 O/U before Roy (start No. 1 not included since he was opening day), but from the game before his sixth start (Apr. 30) the team went 2-5 O/U. Home record was 2-3 O/U and road record was 3-3 O/U but road record since May 1 is 1-2 O/U.
– Starting with the game before Roy’s 10th start, Philadelphia posted three-straight unders with one under coming at home and the other two unders coming on the road.
AROUND THE HORN
Along with the Padres and Phils, the Mets at Marlins (RA Dickey) and Braves (B. Beachy) vs. Cardinals fit this look-ahead pitching profile. New York is 12-3 O/U on the road this year and getting a 7 Over (-110) in tonight’s game at Miami and oddsmakers have posted a total of 8 Under (-111) at St. Louis.
New York (J. Santana, 1-2, 2.61 ERA) are riding a season-high five-game win streak and coming off a rare sweep at Philadelphia. They are 12-3 O/U on the road but this is their first trip to Marlins Ballpark and runs could be tough to find against Mark Buehrle (2-4, 2.83) as the southpaw tries to build on his complete game performance against San Diego (May 5).
System Says – Take the Mets and Marlins Under 7 runs
In St. Louis, lefty Mike Minor (2-2, 5.97) needs to shake off two rough starts and run support could be scarce against left-hander Jaime Garcia (2-2, 3.76). Garcia is 2-0 lifetime against the Braves and he’s worked efficiently at home, averaging fewer than 14 pitches per inning.
System Says – Take the Braves and Cardinals Under 8 runs
MLB PICKS
Philly is averaging 3.62 runs per game at home but they are only hitting .220 against lefties with a .261 on base percentage. The Padres are 1-5 in Richard’s six starts and the lefty does not get a lot of support but look for him to do his part as this game sneaks under the number.
Pick: Take the Padres and Phillies Under 7.5 runs
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