The Pittsburgh Pirates managed just one hit in the series opener and today at Detroit, they’ll try and improve on a terrible 10-21 Interleague record since 2010
The Tigers have a record of 6 overs and 12 unders this season following a win
Detroit went 7-11 last year in Interleague play and Friday’s gem by Justin Verlander moved the team’s overall record within a game of .500. The Tigers (19-20) have not won a home series since May 4-6 against the White Sox and after limping home from a west coast swing, showed signs of life in an eight-run rally at US Cellular (May 15) but then followed that with back-to-back losses to Minnesota.
Left-hander Drew Smyly (1-0, 2.31 ERA) will take the mound today for Detroit against the league’s lowest scoring team. Pittsburgh (2.87 R/9) is hitting .215 against lefties and in 21 road games the Pirates have a record of 8 overs, 12 unders and 1 push.
AJ Burnett (1-2, 5.12 ERA) has not earned a win since his Pirates debut April 21 but the team is 3-2 in his five starts and other than one bad outing in St. Louis (May 2), the crafty veteran has looked solid. Burnett’s one day start, May 13 against Houston, finished in a 3-2 Pirates win (UN 7 runs).
Online sportsbooks offer the Tigers as a -153 favorite for this game and the total is 8 Under (-110). The total for the first 5 innings is 4 Under (-110).
BAIT AND SWITCH
Winners from the first game of these Interleague ‘teaser’ series get a lot of action from sports betting sites and as such, the odds for some of yesterday’s winners ranges from Diamondbacks (-105) up to the Blue Jays (-214). For the eight favorites, the average price has MLB odds of -148 (moneyline).
Figures from the last few years, however, show very little value in backing favorites Saturday after a win in game 1 of the series:
2010 Series 1: Friday, May 21 – Sunday, May 23
Straight-up winners from day 1 went 6-8 on day 2 (43-percent)
Note: The 6 winners from day 2 were 1-5 in their bid for a sweep
2011 Series 1: Friday, May 20 – Sunday, May 22
Straight-up winners from day 1 went 7-7 on day 2 (50-percent)
Note: The 7 winners from day 2 were 4-3 in their bid for a sweep
MLB PICKS
It’s hard to support a road team like the Pirates who offers so little in the way of consistent offense but Detroit could suffer a bit of a letdown today as well. Burnett has relatively good numbers against Detroit’s top hitters and as long as he doesn’t leave anything up, we look for another low scoring start.
Pick: Take the first 5 innings Under 4 runs