CFL Pick – Getting Poutine in the Big Smoke

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Montreal Alouettes Toronto Argos

By Greg Dempson

Bet365 Odds: Montreal Alouettes +6.5 vs Toronto Argonauts -6.5 Total 44.5

Playing in a new venue hasn’t helped the Argonauts this season as they are 0–2 straight up and ATS losing (42–20) vs. Hamilton as well as (30–20) vs. Ottawa last week. When reviewing last season and this year, the Argos are on a 1–8 ATS home streak as well as 07–20 ATS in their last 27 at home.

The Alouettes are only 1–2 this season with that lone win coming on the road at Winnipeg in week 1. Montreal looked lost last week at home vs. the Tiger–Cats in a 31–07 loss. No team is as good as they might appear to be when winning one week nor as bad as they seem to be in a blowout loss. I realize when comparing the NFL to the CFL it a stretch, Apples vs. Zebras but on any given day in any sport……….

Case in point, the Baltimore Colts opened the 1978 season with a 38–00 loss at Dallas. In week 2 they were at home in a divisional match-up against the Dolphins and the Colts lost that game 42–00. I’ll guarantee you ABC–TV wished they had flex scheduling back then as the Colts were installed as week 3 Monday night underdogs of +14 in a division road game at Foxboro Stadium vs. the Patriots. The final score, Colts 34, Patriots 27. “Chickens one day, feathers the next!”

· Montreal is 28–11 ATS and +15.90-units in road games after having lost two out of their last three games.

· Toronto is only 2–9 ATS in their last 11 vs. division foes.

· Montreal is 22–11 straight up at Toronto since 1996 including 23–10 ATS.

· Argos coach Milanovich is 02–14 ATS and -13.40-units in home games vs. teams that allow 88+ penalty yards per game.

· When off a loss vs. a division foe head coach Popp/Team are 02–12 UNDER the total with an average score of Montreal 21.4 vs. opponent 20.2.

· After the first month of the season Milanovich is 05–21 ATS and -18.10-units at home as their coach losing by an average score of 28.2 vs. 24.2.
All Systems Go
· Toronto is 06–16 ATS and -11.60-units in home games after allowing 8.1 or more yards per play in their previous game.

· Montreal is off a loss by 20 or more points, (31–07) and playing a team that is basically the same as they are on defense as each team is allowing between 23–28 points per game. When investing on the team that was just defeated by 20 or more points as an underdog including pick, (applies to Montreal,) the play on team in this system is 23–05 = 82% ATS since 1996. The average line in this system was –5 vs. a final score of 25.5–23.9 or a margin of victory of only 1.6 PPG.

· After gaining 275 or less total yards in their last game, play on road underdogs or pick with a poor defense, allowing 385 or more total yards per game. This system is 49–19 = 72% ATS since 1996. The average line in this system is –9 vs. an average final score of 26.2 vs. 23.5 for a MOV of 2.7 points per game.

CFL Pick

My Everyedge selection is on the Montreal Alouettes at +6 or more. (My line was +7 when I wagered on this game.)

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