Citrus Bowl Pick – LSU Tigers vs Louisville Cardinals

  • by


citrus bowl

By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: LSU -3 vs Louisville +3 Total 58.5

This game kicks-off early, 11:00 am Eastern Time as there are four Bowl games this New Years Eve. ABC is televising this contest with the other three games airing on ESPN including Kentucky and Georgia Tech airing at the same time, 11:00 ET.

I am a firm believer that it is never wise to bet the Bowl games early, (with my exception being military teams,) as they definitely do behave. I cannot fathom what the consequences would be for “screwing up!”

So, speaking of screw ups, how about “Wakey-Leaks play sharing scandal?” Yes, that Wake Forest “leak” that benefited the Cardinals that has resulted in Louisville’s offensive coordinator Lonnie Galloway being suspended. To make matters worse, two star players for the Cardinals won’t be participating in this contest as James Hearns, 43 tackles and 8 sacks as well as back-up Henry Famurewa, (2 sacks,) were shot near campus on December 11. The Cardinals have Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson under center, (50 touchdowns vs. 9 interceptions,) but their offense has a tendency to turn the ball over this season, 31 times to be exact and that’s not a good number vs. an aggressive defense the likes of which the Tigers possess.

For The Record

  • LSU finished the regular season at 7–4 while Louisville went 9–3 yet the Tigers are favored by 3 points and they’ll be without the services of Leonard Fournette. Enter Darrius Guice as their “back-up” running back. Guice is one of the most explosive running backs in the country, he averaged a league high 7.9 yards per carry and also ran for a SEC best 14 touchdowns. He also finished second in the conference in rushing with 1,249 yards and broke Fournette’s single game school rushing record by rushing for 285 yards against Texas A&M.
  • Louisville is 12–29 ATS after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers.
  • In their last four games the Tigers held Alabama to 10 points as well as Arkansas and allowed only 16 to the Gators before blowing out A&M, (54–39.)

My Bowl Record in Review

  • Thursday’s selection on Florida State at +7 was a straight up winner improving my Bowl record to 2–1–1 ATS. Overall my College selections for this season are 11–05–01 ATS.

Super System

  • Play against all teams that are outscoring their opponents by 7 or more points per game, (applies to playing against the Cardinals,) when the line is + or –3 points, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. This system is 31–07 = 82% ATS the past five seasons.

Citrus Bowl Pick

My Every Edge Bowl selection on this game is to take LSU at –3 points.