NHL betting in the 2012 playoffs has kept bettors on the edge of their seats with a record breaking number of 1-goal games. The New Jersey Devils and Los Angeles Kings are holding form with a pair of overtime thrillers to open the series and sportsbooks have slashed NHL overtime odds but is it still worth the price?
69-percent of Game 3’s in the NHL playoffs have played “Over” the posted total the past six years
Think back to April 11, the first day of NHL playoff betting, when the Pittsburgh Penguins top line opened fire on an unsuspecting Ilya Bryzgalov and jumped to a 3-0 first period lead. Philadelphia fought its way back to tie that game and eventually win it in overtime, 4-3, but that was not the usual path during the rest of that six-game series.
Scores like 8-5 and 10-3 created a 3.33 average margin of victory and it’s already prompted Penguins brass to sign a deal with Tomas Vokoun for next season.
The rest of the playoffs have been edge of your seat entertainment, with 49 games decided by a one-goal margin (67-percent). The Devils have had seven games decided in overtime and the Kings have skated to extra time on four occasions but remember, Los Angeles has only played 16 times.
NHL odds on the overtime prop for Game 3 payback in the +260 range, down from a regular season rate of +290 (or more) and while each of these teams carries a three-game overtime streak into tonight’s contest, our numbers suggest this game will be settled in 60 minutes.
The New Jersey Devils have played 10 home games and 10 road games in this playoff and five of seven OT games took place at The Prudential Center.
– New Jersey’s most recent overtime road game was April 29 at Philadelphia (Game 1)
Los Angeles deserves a lot of credit for its 10 consecutive road games during these playoffs and despite a 3.40 to 1.50 goal-differential, would you believe that LA has played all four of its playoff OT games away from the Staples Center?
– The Kings are 4-2 at home in the playoffs, outscoring opponents by a thin 0.33 GPG average (1.83-1.50)
WHAT’S A DEVIL TO DO?
Los Angeles has only been shutout once this postseason, in Game 4 against the Phoenix Coyotes. It’s evident the Devils will need to score at least two goals to win this contest and while there are no guarantees, New Jersey gave itself plenty of opportunity to win in Game 2. The Devils averaged three goals in Game 3 of the first two rounds but was shutout May 19 when Henrik Lundqvist make 36 saves in a 3-0 Rangers win. Los Angeles is 2-1 in Game 3’s with 1 over and 2 unders but the Kings feel they can open up their forecheck with a 2-0 series lead. It could take overtime but with NHL odds of 4.5 OV (-115), our play is on this game hitting five goals or more.
Pick: Take the Over
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