by Greg Dempson
So the “Jersey Boys” are on television this evening, will you be watching? It starts at 9:00 ET when the guys from Jersey City, New Jersey hit the court, the Saint Peter’s Peacocks, and hosting the Furman Paladins on that other CBS sports channel, CBSC, (as well as Direct-TV channel 221.)
This CIT contest is played at the Victor R. Yanitelli Recreation Life Center, so, as mentioned, it’s a home game for the Peacocks. The line tonight is -3 and that is exactly what my data suggests the number should be with the total pegged at 123.5 and 124 as of this update.
If Furman can force Saint Peter’s to play a faster pace game they will win. The Peacocks on the other hand are a slow down tempo team, (2-7-1 to the UNDER in their last 10 contests,) vs. the Paladins who went 11-5 on the road this season, (72.6 PPG for vs. allowing an average of 69.1)
In their last 10 games Furman was 8-4 to the OVER when the O/U was less than 140 points this season. The lowest total on the board for a Paladins contest was 128 and they played two additional low total contests, (130, 130.5 and 131,) with all four games sailing over the total. So, why is this number sitting so low at 124.5 this evening? The books know the majority of gamblers love to play the favorite and the over, so, is the over at 124.5 worthwhile?
Signs, Signs, Everywhere Signs
If you’re in Nevada for March Madness, when you walk through the doors of the Sports Book always remember the sign says, “Casino, not bank!”
· Okay so I was originally tempted to take the over so when digging a little deeper here is what I found…….
· When the total is between 120 and 129.5 points, (in a game involving two good 3 point shooting teams making 36.5% or more of their 3’s,) as well as a game involving two average rebounding teams of + or -3, play the game under. This has occurred but twice this season with both contests staying under and in the past five seasons this system is 12-38 = 76% to the UNDER. The average O/U in this system has been 126.5 vs. an average score of 118.1 combined points per game.
· When the Over/Under is 129.5 or lower, play all teams under the total in any Neutral site tournament semi-final game when one of the teams has won four out of their last five contests. This system is 62-113 = 65% to the UNDER since 1996. The average total in this system has been 124.7 PPG which is eerily close to this evenings offering of 123.5 and 124 points. The average combined final score in this system has been 121.1 PPG.
Everyedge in Review and Tonight’s Opinion
· The Trailblazers got the job done last night and I’m now 14-13 ATS with my College an NBA Everyedge selections.