TCU at Kansas State Total 63 – 7:00pm ET, (game #397/398)
With last week’s College win on the over in the Stanford/Arizona game I stand at 4–0 vs. the number in College football. Two weeks ago I was on the Texas Tech Red Raiders getting +7 at home in their game vs. TCU and that line eventually closed with the home dog getting +5. TCU got a fluke touchdown off a deflection at game’s end to win the contest by 3 points, (55–52,) but losing ATS with the game sailing way over the total of 83.5. In TCU’s other road game, in week 1 at Minnesota, they sleep walked vs. the Gophers winning straight up 23–17, but they never came close to covering the number, (–16,) with that game staying well under the total of 57.5.
Last week at home the Horned Frogs stampeded the Longhorns to the tune of 50–07, ouch! TCU has now scored 50 or more points in their last four games. Kansas State has allowed 33 and 36 points in back-to-back games so that opening line favoring the road team by –7 has climbed to –9.5 as of this posting. For the Wildcats to have a chance in this contest they need to get off to a good start and be competitive in the first half. Texas Tech scored 28 first half points when they hosted TCU two Saturday’s ago, which is exactly what Kansas State put up vs. Conference rival Oklahoma State in the first half of last week’s game.
View From the 50 Yard Line
– This is the fourth time these two teams will meet since TCU joined the conference, the last two seasons both games sailed over the totals. Last year, at TCU, the two teams crept over 59 points, (41–20,) and in 2013, in Manhattan, the Wildcats won (33–31,) sailing over the number of 45.
– Head coach Patterson is 12–04 to the over when the O/U is greater than or equal to 63 points.
– Patterson is also 30–18 to the over after scoring 20 or more points in the first half, in back-to-back games.
– Head coach Snyder is 15–05 to the over when the total is between 56.5 and 63 including 10–2 to the over when at home, (average PPG = 67.4.)
– Coach Snyder is 20–09 to the over vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play, (average score = 68.7 PPG.)
– TCU is 17–05 to the over after leading by 24 or more points in the first half in their last game.
– Kansas State is 20–06 to the over after allowing 475 or more yards in their previous game.
– When a team returns five defensive starters and the O/U is between 56.5 to 63 points, and said team, (TCU,) has gained 450 or more yards in three consecutive games, play the over. This system is 22–03 = 88% to the over the past 10 seasons.
– Saturday’s weather forecast calls for sunny skies, light wind at 13 MPH and a game time temperature of 74 F.
College Football Picks
My EveryEdge Game of the Week is for TCU/Kansas State to sail over the total of 63 points.
For additional free picks and winning information visit, www.gregdempson.com.