By Greg Dempson
Pinnacle Odds: Wisconsin -8.5 vs Western Michigan +8.5 Total 52
The Badgers would have been playing in the Rose Bowl vs. USC rather than the Cotton Bowl against the Broncos, if they would have defeated Penn State in the Conference Championship. One has to wonder if they are perhaps disappointed. Strength of schedule in this contest is reflected by the line disparity as I see Wisconsin being favored by as high as 9.5 points at one of the books and they are –8 and –8.5 everywhere. I make the line on this game favoring the badgers by –6 points.
Western Michigan enters this Bowl game with a 13–0 record, thanks in part to their +19 take-a-way margin while Wisconsin finished the regular season at 10–03. Other than Alabama they are the only other undefeated team.
Offense vs. Defense Plus Angles
- Wisconsin was ranked #4 in the nation in points allowed at 15.5 and one name that is familiar to NFL fans is T. J. Watt, (brother of Houston Texans star, J. J. Watt.) T. J. Watt had 10.5 sacks this season.
- Western Michigan has stellar quarterback playas Zach Terrell threw for 3,376 yards with 32 touchdowns with a completion percentage is 70.8%. He has two stellar “go-to” play makers, Terrell, Jarvion Franklin, 1,300 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns as well as All American wide out Corey Davis with 91 catches for 1,427 yards and 18 touchdowns.
- The Broncos are 7–0 ATSin road games after outgaining an opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game.
- The Badgers’ game plan will be to run the ball and the clock and keep the high powered offense of the Broncos off the field. Wisconsin’s Corey Clement rushed for at least 100 yards in seven of the last eight games as well as ,304 yards plus 14 scores.
- Western Michigan is 20–07 ATS after one or more straight up wins as well as on a streak of 12–03 ATS after the first month of the season
Bowl Season in Review
- My last selection on the LSU Tigers at –3 won, (29–09,) and my College Bowl record improves to 3–1–1. My season long Every Edge College record has improved to 12–05–01 ATS.
Power System
- Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two good rushing teams who both outrush their opponents by 50+ yards per game, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in their last game. This system is 47–22 = 68% ATS the past five seasons.
Cotton Bowl Pick
My Every Edge Cotton Bowl selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos, I have one out where I can get +9.5 points. (I would recommend a play at +8.5 or more.)