EPL Picks: Can Newcastle win at home to Arsenal? Hasn’t happen in 10 years!

EPL Picks

This weekend sees the fourth round of Premier League football and with next weekend seeing a break for international action as the start date for the 2016 European Championships draws ever closer we’re treated to an eight game card in the EPL this Saturday. The games begin and end with the North London sides as Arsenal travel to Newcastle at lunchtime while Tottenham welcome Everton in the evening, but where are we betting?

Our favourite picks on these two matches, plus the other six, are below and all odds are provided by online sportsbook Betfair.com.

Newcastle v Arsenal: 5.50 – 4.00 – 1.65

The opening match of the fourth round of Premier League football comes from St. James’ Park and for the first time this season does not feature Manchester United. We are treated to the clash of Newcastle v Arsenal as the home team are searching for their first win of the season, while the Gunners are after back to back away victories after collecting their only triumph away at Crystal Palace in game week two.

The Magpies welcome back Papiss Cisse and Daryl Janmaat after injury and suspension respectively, while the Londoners are likely to see defensive pairing of Koscielny and Per Mertesacker miss out through injury and illness, just as they did against Liverpool last weekend. Despite missing these players they do have a great record against Newcastle having won all of the last seven meetings, scoring 20 goals, and having not lost on this ground since 2005. However, Newcastle did show their scrappy side against Manchester United last weekend and Arsenal have scored with just 5% of their shots in the league so far this season. We feel that this could be a close game and we’re backing few goals in this early EPL game. Back less than 2.5 goals to be scored at odds of 2.10 with Betfair.com.

Chelsea v Crystal Palace: 1.36 – 5.00 – 10.00

After three games of the season few people would have expected when these two West and South London sides clashed at Stamford Bridge we would see Palace two points ahead of the champions following just a single win for Jose Mourinho’s side. They have lost just a single match on home soil under the stewardship of Jose Mourinho and after seeing two red cards this season, with John Terry the latest to be sent off against West Brom last weekend, could we see this number doubled?

Chelsea do have the benefit of not having played during midweek as Palace needed extra time against Shrewsbury Town to progress in the Capital One Cup, but with a full fit side apart from the injured Mile Jedinak and Patrick Bamford who cannot play against his parent club Alan Pardew and Palace will be confident about this match. They were only beaten by a single goal here last season and while they may not win this season, we certainly see them pushing the champions all the way. Back both teams to score @ 2.00 in the Betfair Sportsbook.

Bournemouth v Leicester: 2.15 – 3.60 – 3.40

The newly promoted side come into this game on a high after their thrilling 3-4 win at West Ham last weekend and although they are the big favourites to win this Saturday afternoon despite facing the impressive Leicester side who currently sit second in the league, with only Manchester City ahead of them. The Cherries have shown that they are no pushovers in the top flight with impressive performances albeit narrow 1-0 defeats to Aston Villa and Liverpool before their win last weekend as Callum Wilson bagged a hat-trick to seal the first ever top flight victory for the club. They will certainly fancy their chances this weekend.

Leicester have won both of the previous meetings with Bournemouth two seasons ago in the Championship and with 4-2 and 2-1 wins over Sunderland and West Ham before a 1-1 draw with Tottenham last weekend they too will believe that three points is theirs. We feel that the away side are certainly the more experienced, composed and, ultimately, better side so we cannot see them getting defeated this weekend. Back Leicester/Draw Double Chance at odds of 1.70.

Aston Villa v Sunderland: 1.90 – 3.50 – 4.60

Two of the poorer teams in the league meet at Villa Park this Saturday afternoon looking to avoid their third defeats of the season as they sit 14th and 19th in the EPL having taken three points and a single point so far. Villa defeated Bournemouth before losing to Manchester United and Crystal Palace, while Sunderland were thumped 4-2 and 3-1 by Leicester and Norwich before snatching a draw with Swansea last weekend.

Both sides were involved in the Capital One Cup during the week with Villa needing extra time to see of Notts County while Sunderland saw Jermaine Defoe score a hat-trick to see of Exeter City 6-3. Neither of these sides defend well so we see chances in this match and with Sunderland having the better array of attacking players, especially with Villa having been affected by a sickness bug during the week, we would not be surprised to see them get something from this game. Back Sunderland/Draw Double Chance @ 1.85 with Betfair.com.

Man City v Watford: 1.18 – 7.00 – 17.00

Although these two teams come into this match separated by 11 places – as they sit top and 12th in the league – both of these sides come into this fourth game of the season unbeaten. City have won all of their opening three games to be the only EPL side to have nine points at this stage of the season, while the newcomers to the top flight have drawn all three games. However, of the two sides it has been City who have been rampant and we are confident that despite missing Wilfried Bony, Pablo Zabaleta, Gael Clichy and Fernando for this match that this will be a comfortable home win for the league leaders.

Back City to win this by at least three goals (Man City -2) at odds of 2.25 in the Betfair Sportsbook.

Stoke v West Brom: 1.95 – 3.40 – 4.50

A tale of Tony Pulis as his former side take on his West Brom team at the Britannia Stadium this Saturday afternoon separated by just a single point as Stoke are 15th with two and The Baggies bottom of the EPL with just one. Stoke have been the better of these two sides in the opening three matches of the season so far with them bouncing back from a 1-0 loss to Liverpool and losing 2-0 at half time to Tottenham with two draws, including a 1-1 at Norwich last weekend that saw new signing Xherdan Shaqiri grab an assist.

West Brom have conceded six goals on home soil to Man City and Chelsea as well as drawing 0-0 with Watford in the league and whilst only bagging two against the champions last weekend. They were vastly improved against Jose Mourinho’s side but we can see Pulis setting up defensively against his old side, especially considering that their top striker in Saido Berahino has been agitating for a move this week. Both teams progressed through to the third round of the cup during the week after penalties and we see this match being a dour one, but the home side have more quality within their ranks and we see them taking the points in this game to leaving West Brom struggling at the bottom of the table. Back Stoke to beat West Brom @ 1.95.

Liverpool v West Ham: 1.36 – 5.50 – 10.00

The home team in this Liverpool v West Ham match will fancy their chances at Anfield this Saturday as the Londoners are missing strikers Enner Valencia, Mauro Zarate and Andy Carroll, while goalkeeper Adrian and defender Carl Jenkinson are suspended after recent red cards. Liverpool have started the season without conceding a goal as 1-0 wins over Stoke and Bournemouth were followed by a 0-0 draw with Arsenal, while The Hammers shocked Arsenal on the opening day with a 2-0 win at The Emirates before suffering 2-1 and 4-3 losses at home to Leicester and Bournemouth.

With their missing players and suffering a 2-0 loss here last season, we see a straight forward win for the home team this weekend again. Our money is on Liverpool to beat West Ham to nil at odds of 2.15 at Betfair.

Tottenham v Everton: 1.95 – 3.60 – 4.20

The final match of this Premier League Saturday sees Tottenham look to extend their three game winning streak and five match unbeaten run against Everton on home soil in the day’s late game. However, having lost to Manchester United, let a two goal lead against Stoke slip and saw their lead against Leicester slip after just 60 seconds are they capable of beating an Everton side that starts the weekend in seventh?

Everton have been hit and miss this season with a battling 2-2 draw at home to Watford followed up with a thumping 3-0 away win at Southampton before suffering a 2-0 loss to league leaders Man City and, despite this inconsistent form, they will believe that they can win at White Hart Lane. They are still missing key defender Leighton Baines through injury but the fact that John Stones is still at the club despite considerable interest from Chelsea means that they are still defensive capable of seeing off Tottenham, especially considering that top scorer from last season Harry Kane is yet to find the net this campaign. Back Everton/Draw Double Chance at odds of 1.85 with Betfair.com.