by Greg Dempson
This is an unique match-up as the Ducks make a return Final 4 appearance 78 years after their first and only one, way back in 1939 when the Ducks were known as the “Tall Firs.” Appearing in the Final 4 is “old hat” for North Carolina as this game vs. Oregon marks their 20th Final 4 appearance. The line has held firm at -5 while the total has seen upwards pressure towards to over, opening at 150 and now sitting at 152.
The Tar Heels are leading the nation in rebounding at +13 while the Duck are +4 in that department. For Oregon to win this game they will have to limit second chance points by the Tar Heels and not get into a shoot-out with them. As the competition got tougher none of Oregon’s final three tournament games exceeded 147 points with their final two victories coming with combined total scores of 137 vs. Michigan and 134 against Kansas. As for the Tar Heels in their final three tournament games they saw only one of those three exceed 148 points, their contest vs. Butler.
Sports Bar Banter
An overheard conversation in a popular sports bar!
Patron #1, “Why did the Duck cross the road?”
Patron #2, “To get to the Final 4?”
Patron #1, “No, the duck didn’t cross the road!”
Patron #2, “So, why didn’t the duck cross the road then?”
Patron #1, “He did not, because, after talking to the chicken…the chicken told him….”Don’t even go there, you’ll never hear the end of it!”
A Final Four “Downer”
The Ducks are 1-7 to the UNDER this season when the O/U is between 150 to 159.5 points plus they’re 04-19 to the UNDER when the total is between 150 to 159.5 in all Neutral court games dating back to 1997.
Oregon is also 02-10 to the under when the O/U is between 150 to 154.5 points in Neutral court contests since 1997.
North Carolina is 04-15 to the UNDER when playing only their second game in a week this season.
The Tar Heels are also 03-14 to the UNDER after two straight games when outrebounding opponents by 10 or more this season.
The Ducks are 14-26 to the UNDER when off back-to-back wins by 10 or more points the past two seasons.
North Carolina is 02-10 to the UNDER vs. teams who are called for 17 or less fouls this season.
Coasting in Neutral
When the over/under is between 150 to 159.5 points, in Neutral court tournament games, play the under. In the past five seasons this system has been live more than 500 times, (I’ve taken out pushes.) By wagering on the under this system is 192-318 = 62.4% to the UNDER and +106.8-units of profit.
Every Edge In Review
· My Every Edge record with wagered on selections is 14-13 ATS in College and the NBA with the pro picks faring considerably better.
Final Four Pick
I offer up a top opinion on this game, and that Every Edge opinion is for the Ducks and Tar Heels to stay under the total of 152. If you are going to bet on the under I suggest you wait until closer to game time as in this stand alone games the tendency is usually for the total to climb higher.