By Greg Dempson
Anytime I can grab a marquee pitcher at plus money, I immediately query my data to see if there’s a definite edge to support that team.
I believe I’ve found one such game tonight as Madison Bumgarner takes the mound in Yankees Stadium vs. Masahiro Tanaka.
In this 7:05 ET start Tanaka will pitch on regular rest and he’s struggled in that scenario this season. In eight starts on regular rest, Tanaka is 1–2 with a 5.33 ERA. In 12 starts on extended rest Tanaka is 6–0 this season with an ERA of 1.70. That is a substantial ERA difference of 3.63.
Around the Diamonds
· Bumgarner is 22–03 on the road with an O/U between 7 to 8.5 runs, winning by an average of 5.6 vs. 2.6 runs per game the past two seasons.
· The Yankees are 12–27 vs. lefties this season, (3.8 RPG.)
· Bumgarner is 15–03 and +12.70-units vs. the M/L in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game the past 3 seasons.
· The Yankees are -23.80-units against the money line after four or more consecutive home games the last two seasons.
· The Giants are 21–12 and +10.10-units) against the money line when the M/L is + or –125 this season.
· The Yankees are 3–7 in Inter–League games this season.
· This season San Francisco is 24–10 and +13.0-units against the M/L vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start.
· This season the Yankees are 06–13 and -10.60-units against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games.
· The Giants are 33–16 and +13.50-units against the money line after one or more consecutive overs this season.
All Systems Go
· Play against any American League team with a terrible on base percentage of .310 or lower when playing against a very good National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.250 or lower and pitching against a starting pitcher, (Tanaka,) who allowed 1 or less earned runs in his last start. This system is 40–12 = 77% the past five seasons.
· After a loss to a division rival, (as a home favorite,) play against any team winning between 51% to 54% of their games when the M/L is + or –125. This system is 57–26 = 69% the past five seasons.
Giants vs Yankees Pick
I have wagered on the Giants at +103 on the money line as an official Every Edge selection this evening.