Mayweather & Pacquiao who?
What a weekend we have planned this Saturday and Sunday as the Mayweather v Pacquiao fight plays out in Vegas, the NBA and NHL playoffs continue, both the Premier League and Serie A in England and Italy should be decided and, last but not least, Churchill Downs hosts the 141st running of the most famous horse race in the world in the Kentucky Derby.
The Kentucky Derby is the jewel in the crown of all US horse racing and continually draws massive crowds and TV audiences. The 2015 field is comprised of 21 horses and the betting odds from online sportsbook SportsInteraction.com suggest that we’re equally likely of seeing the race being dominated by the favourite or being a closely contested race between a number of front runners. The SportsInteraction.com 2015 Kentucky Derby odds are as follows as of April 30:
PN/Runner/Odds
1 Ocho Ocho Ocho 50-1
2 Carpe Diem 8-1
3 Materiality 12-1
4 Tencendur 30-1
5 Danzig Moon 30-1
6 Mubtaahij 20-1
7 El Kabelr 30-1
8 Dortmund 3-1
9 Bolo 30-1
10 Firing Line 12-1
12 International Star 20-1
13 Itsaknockout 30-1
14 Keen Ice 50-1
15 Frosted 15-1
16 War Story 50-1
17 Mr. Z 50-1
18 American Pharoah 5-2
19 Upstart 15-1
20 Far Right 30-1
21 Frammento 50-1
22 Tale of Verve 50-1
*Stanford has been scratched from the race.
SportsInteration.com is offering 100% match deposit bonus on the Kentucky Derby
After triumphing at the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths the Bob Baffert trained American Pharoah is the favourite to triumph this weekend in the Run for the Roses. He will be ridden by Victor Espinoza for the race and is renowned as a speedster, having come past just one horse in his four races and wins so far. However, with the Derby one of the hardest races on front running horses, with only 22 of the 140 races – including none of the last 12 since War Emblem triumphed a slow paced field in 2002 – seeing front runners triumph and be crowned champion is Pharoah that good that he can upset the usual pattern at Churchill Downs?
Dortmund is expected to be the big challenger to his stablemate as Bob Baffert owned horses dominate the betting market. He is known as a battling horse and with six wins from six starts the horse starting at number eight certainly has a great chance at pushing American Pharaoh all the way, and with him currently available at odds of 3-1 he could very well be worth a Show bet for the to finish in the top three.
The Todd Pletcher trained Carpe Diem is third favourite but despite having a big reputation coming into the 2015 Kentucky Derby he has a massive weight around his shoulders. Not only have wins come in slow, mediocre races but Todd Pletcher has one of the worst records in this race. He has had 40 entries before this year, which is the second highest of all time, which has brought him just a single win. Yet 27 of the other 39 horses have finished ninth or lower to leave none of his horses fancied to triumph with Materiality, and Itsaknockout and available at 12-1 and 30-1.
The majority of the rest of the field are hopelessly outclassed by the three favourites and, in reality, it appears that the bookies have hit the nail on the head for the 2015 Kentucky Derby. We certainly fancy the favourite to be first past the post this Saturday at Churchill Downs, but are there any value bets to be had?
One of the dark horse favourites is 30-1 long shot Danzig Moon who, despite having only a second place finish to Carpe Diem in a slow paced Blue Grass Stakes race, has both the temperament, pedigree and style of a horse that should be much further up the betting list. His running style is his main weapon, coupled with a number five starting slot, that will allow him to keep pace with the early leaders before looking to make a move around the turn when others are fading. Will he win? Most likely not, but for those looking for an outsider to throw some cash on a Show or Place bet with the chance of a big return then they could not look much further than Danzig Moon to go with a win on the race favourite, American Pharoah.
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