Kentucky Derby Picks and Post Notes

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Track the biggest and most notable Kentucky Derby odds adjustments from before and after post times were drawn at Churchill Downs


Prospective, Went The Day Well, Sabercat and Hansen made the biggest gains at sportsbooks once post positions were drawn Wednesday


The Kentucky Derby might be the most exciting two minutes in sports but for oddsmakers, the minutes that tick between post position draws and Mike Battaglia’s morning line odds can be the most intense.


All 20 horses in the field were available for betting right up until the first call for Take Charge Indy at the 3-hole but after that, online betting shops yanked the lines and listened for the rest of lineup in what is setting up to be a tight race.


We made a few notes for which horses saw the biggest shift once Mike Battaglia read his morning line and compared the odds with numbers Pinnacle was offering just a few hours before the draw. Obviously a bad draw can devastate the horses chances of winning but the only two spots that have not produced a winner in the 137 running’s of the Derby are 17 and 19.



First, the teams who saw a drop in price. These horses were already longshots and after drawing a post, books aren’t likely going to take a lot of action on them winning.


1. Daddy Long Legs, on the inside rail, went from +2338 to 30/1

Last year the No. 1 post was Archarcharch, a 10/1 favorite who finished 15th


2. Liaison, at the 20 post, went from +4063 to 50/1

In 2011, the field was shortened to 19 horses when Uncle Mo withdrew. This year there are 20 horses in the field but 21 have entered. My Adonis will move in if there is a scratch by 9 am ET Friday.


3. Optimizer, at the 2 post, went from +4063 to 50/1

Brilliant Speed had No. 2 last year at 30-to-1 and finished 7th. Optimizer will have a hard time cracking the top 10


4. Trinniberg, at the 9 post, went from +2540 to 50/1

Has not run longer than 7 furlongs in his career. Will be fast but durability/endurance are question marks


5. Done Talking, at the 17 post, went from +2030 to 50/1


If you’re going to take a flier on any of these longshots, it’s a good idea to grab a piece of the action early. This year’s horses in the 50/1 range could get bet down to 25- and 30- to 1 by Saturday because the field is so wide open.


In the history of the Kentucky Derby, 12 winners have come from both the No. 1 and No. 5 post positions


And now for the gainers. These horses were already lined up on the shortlist for a lot of handicapper’s and now they are hot commodities with online sportsbooks as Kentucky Derby betting moves to the forefront.


1. Prospective, at the 12 post, went from +4572 to 30/1

Owner John Oxley knows what it takes to win at Churchill and horse has won 50-percent of its events as a three-year old. Late gainer; could have a chance down the backstretch with a clean trip


2. Went The Day Well, at the 13, went from +2540 to 20/1

Jockey John Velazquez was on board with Animal Kingdom for the win in 2011 and will try and become the first owner/trainer combo to win back-to-back derbies since 1972-73. It’s only happened once. The Kentucky Derby victory was the first in the 13 tries for Velazquez and the first for trainer Graham Motion who had had two previous Derby starters. The 13-spot has produced four winners in Kentucky Derby history. ***Early Pick to Win***


3. Sabercat, at the 18 post, went from +3455 to 30/1

Winner of the Delta Jackpot and was third at Arkansas Derby. Will come from towards the back; not a bad spot for this horse.


4. Hansen, at the 14 post, went from +1486 to 10/1

Has won four of six races lifetime; sure to be a popular pick with bettors


5. Alpha, at the 11 post, went from +1728 to 15/1

Winner of the Wood Memorial. The No. 11 and 12 horses last year finished 5th and 6th with odds of 30/1 each.


6. I’ll Have Another, at the 19 post, went from +1424 to 12/1

Winner of the Santa Anita Derby, one of two impressive wins this year. No horse has ever won the derby from this position and this group had the biggest reason to be upset with their draw


7. Dullahan, at the 5 post, went from +1017 to 8/1

In the history of the Kentucky Derby, 12 winners have come from the No. 5 post position. Brother to Mine That Bird (2009 winner)


8. Gemologist, at the15 post, went from +783 to 6/1

A five-race winning streak will keep this horse ranked as one of the top three or four picks all week. Starting next to El Padrino, another Pletcher horse, only helps his chances.


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