March Madness Picks – Indiana vs. Kentucky

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The first of four No. 1 seeds advanced yesterday and tonight, two more will try and live up to expectations including the Kentucky Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiers


The Wildcats (7) and Hoosiers (5) share a combined 12 National Championship titles


Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its past four games including a 1-1 ATS split in the first two rounds of March Madness betting. Their margins of victory were by 15 and 16 points but the pointspread vs. Western Kentucky was a typical No. 1 vs. No. 16 style (26.5 points).


Online sportsbooks opened the Wildcats at -8.5 vs. fourth seeded Indiana and the current NCAA odds shows Kentucky at -9.5.


Indiana is 7-2 ATS this season in nine games as a dog and one of those wins was Dec. 10, when the Hoosiers handed the Wildcats their only regular season loss, 73-72 as a 5.5-point dog. It was a buzzer beating three-pointer by Christian Watford and the Hoosiers will need their perimeter shooting to be at the top of its game tonight.


Kentucky shot 56-percent from the floor in wins over Western Kentucky and Iowa State with little assistance from the bench. It was foul trouble that helped limit Anthony Davis in the loss at Assembly Hall and the Hoosiers took full advantage, going 14 of 17 from the line.


The Wildcats discipline has improved dramatically as the team matured through the back-half of the season and No. 1 seeds are 33-8 straight-up in Sweet 16 betting the past 11 years, but Kentucky has sent many a bettor to the poorhouse this season thanks to these inflated lines.


Favorites off back-to-back blowout wins in this round (15-plus points) are on a 12-4 ATS hot streak but the Wildcats are on a 14-21 ATS run in lined games. There is a lot to support Kentucky advancing to the next round but rather than lay the points, we are backing another first-half play.
Pick: Take the “Over” 67.5 in the first-half


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Check updated NCAA Odds