MLB Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

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Pinnacle Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks +101 at Milwaukee Brewers -109 Total 8.5 

by Greg Dempson

The Diamondbacks took game one of this four game series last night, (4-0.) The Brewers have now lost four in a row while scoring only 13 runs in those four loses, (three of which have come at home.) The Brewers might also be without catcher Manny Pina for a while as he left Thursday’s game after being hit by a pitch close to his left elbow.

Milwaukee starts a pitcher who does not have a lot of experience as a starter this season, Junior Guerra, who has pitched 3 innings. Guerra went 9-3 last season with an ERA of 2.81,WHIP of 1.126. He has never faced the Diamondbacks and in home starts in his career he’s 5-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 10 starts at Miller Park.

If the pitcher to catcher timing is suspect, that could present a problem, as the Diamondbacks are averaging 0.98 stolen bases per game, second in the majors, trailing only the Cincinnati Reds. Incidentally, Milwaukee is third in the league in stolen bases.

Arizona has won nine of their last 10 games and while their road record is only 9-11 they are 22-11, (home and away,) vs. righties. The Diamondbacks send Zack Godley to the mound, Godley has but one road start and his ERA through the last three games is a solid 2.18,WHIP of 0.968.

Godley has faced the Brewers once in his career, (07/23/15,) allowing zero runs in 6 innings on 4 hits walking none and striking out 7 in a 8-3 win. He is also on a streak of 8-2 to the over in his last 10 road starts.

There are a lot of trends that point to the over in this game but in my estimation the total should be 8.5 runs not 9, so just a lean to the over and the home plate umpire is definitely favorable to the over tonight.

Home Plate Umpire Jim Reynolds

· This evenings home plate umpire, Jim Reynolds, is a huge OVER umpire in Dome games. Since 2006 when Reynolds is calling balls and strikes in Dome games the total is 11-02-03 = 84.6% to the OVER with all teams averaging 10.2 runs per game.

Over System

· Play road teams batting .290 or better in their last 15 games to sail over the total when the O/U is 9 to 9.5 runs with a hot starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less in his last three starts. This system is 142-85 = 62.6% and +53.0-units since 1997.
Money Line System
· Play against home teams averaging 4.7 or more runs per game when the money line is + or -125 when facing a good National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or lower while not walking a hitter in his last start. This system is 10-01 vs. the money line the past three seasons as well as 84-46 = 64.6% since 1997. in Review

· My last selection on the Rays/Angels under the total was a winner and I am now 6-7 this season and -0.71-units.

MLB Pick

I have an opinion on the Diamondbacks at -103 on the money line and the over at 8.5 runs at -120 or lower.

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