By Greg Dempson
Pinnacle Sports: Brewers +101 vs Reds -109
· Milwaukee’s starter, (Jimmy Nelson,) takes the mound at a ballpark where he didn’t excel last year as Nelson was full on with regards to the runs he allowed, (15 overall including 14 earned,) in 13 combined innings in his three starts in 2015. He allowed 5 home runs while walking 8 and striking out 9. (All three games sailed well over the total with combined scores of 9, 10 and 15 runs.)
· The Reds send Brandon Finnegan to the mound. In his last three starts Finnegan’s pitched a combined 11 innings while allowing 11 earned runs on 18 hits including 3 homers while walking 8 and striking out 11 with the over at 2–0–1 in those games and in 34 combined innings he/team is 4–1 to the over.
· Cincinnati is 7–1 to the over when hosting the Brewers since April 29, 2015.
· The Brewers bullpen has an ERA of 5.03 with a WHIP of 1.719.
· The Reds are 29–17 to the over at home when the O/U is 8 or 8.5 runs the last two seasons.
· Milwaukee is 12–03 to the over when facing an overworked bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.
· Home plate umpire Eric Cooper has but 1 over vs. 5 unders this season but he’s 5–2–1 to the over when the Reds are home when calling balls and strikes plus Cooper is 5–2 to the over in his last 7 contests in games involving the Brewers. Cooper is also 18–14–02 to the over when a leftie is facing a rightie with an average of 9.4 runs per game.
· Each bullpen has been horrific at this early juncture of the season, (when away from home, the Brewers pen has an ERA of 4.78, (WHIP 1.719,) while the Reds’ bullpen has a shameful ERA of 6.12 at home with a WHIP of 1.608.
MLB Pick
My Every Edge Saturday selection is for the Brewers and Reds to sail over 8.5 runs at –120.