MLB Pick: Sniffing for Cash

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kansas city royals

By Greg Dempson

Bovada: Houston Astros -115 vs Kansas City Royals -105 Total 8.5 

With a win by backing the Indians in my last Every Edge post, my streak improves to 16 wins vs. five loses so I urge everyone to proceed with caution, especially if you are jumping in late. I’m a positive person but I’ve lived this roller coaster ride when wagering on sports for 40+ years so I’m a realist as situations beyond your control can occur quicker than a pitchers balk.

You’re on the under and an untimely walk, or an error, perhaps a wild pitch/passed ball or maybe a starter getting injured early in game and you’re on a total and forced to deal with a bullpen that struggles. There are so many situations beyond a gamblers control and other potential “red herrings” include, an outfielder losing a fly ball due to the sun, a change in the wind or perhaps a non reviewable bad call by an umpire.

My preparation is always the same and I’m very cautious with totals and more often than not, I will not play a total until I know who is behind home plate. Umpires that have a strike zone with two starting pitchers who do not posses great control will often lead to an “over” as walks lead to runs. Errors by teams will definitely affect the outcome of a game. Sometimes teams that allow very few errors have a bad inning, anytime you give a team four or more outs due to an error is never a good scenario when you’re on the under. Good pitchers have bad games and pitchers who have bloated ERA’s sometimes shine.
The one saving grace is I do have is the “vigorish.”I will not lay anymore than –120 with many of my selections being dogs.

Baseball in the only sport of the five major sports where you can hit 50% or less and still make money as long as you are playing underdogs with a certain degree of success and staying away from big favorites.

In tonight’s 8:15 ET start the Astros send leftie Dallas Keuchel to the mound. “Houston, we have a problem” certainly pertains to last season’s Cy Young winner as Keuchel is 2–6 away from home this season with an ERA of 5.91, WHIP 1.456 allowing 37 earned runs in 56.3 innings. In games vs. the Royals he went 2–1 in his last three starts losing the lone road game, (5–1,) allowing 5 earned runs in 6.7 innings.

The Royals start Edinson Volquez who is 5–2 at home, (Volquez/Team is 7–2) at home this season. Volquez has a home ERA of 2.61, WHIP of 1.125 allowing only 17 earned runs, including only 3 home runs,) in 58.7 innings while walking 17 with 48 strikeouts. He’s 6–1 when starting against the Astros with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.171.

From the Dugout

· The Astros are 16–21 and -10.10-units against the money line when the M/L is 1–100 to –150 this season.

· The Royals are 18–07 and +12.40-units against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 the last two seasons.

· Keuchel is 0–7 and -10.50-units against the money line vs. an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.

· Volquez is 10–01 and +8.90-units against the money line in home games vs. an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the last two seasons.

· The Astros are -24.80-units against the money line when playing against American League teams that allow 4.7 or less runs per game on the season during the last two seasons

· The Royals are 14–01 and +14.20-units against the money line in home games vs. an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season.

· Play on all American League teams when the money line is + or –125, (applies to the Royals,) that allow 4.2 or less runs per game on the season after two straight one run losses. This system is 64–36 = 64% since 1997.

· Play against road teams when off two consecutive one run wins vs. a division rival. This system is 45–20 = 69% the past five seasons.

MLB Pick

My Every Edge selection for this evening is on the Kansas City Royals and when I made my wager at 2:26 ET this morning, my money line was +111.

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